The Deep File: Wrangling Russia
In which, the Russia pushback anticipated at the opening of the Biden administration in 2021 materializes in Ukraine in 2022.
Just slightly over a year ago, I noted that Russia would likely be pushing back on the Biden forein policy team as Blinken and company struggled to get on the same page with European allies. The opening weeks of 2022 have more than confirmed that assessment.
January 7: Kazakhstan
I ended last year noting that the crisis in Ukraine seemed to have ratcheted down a little with reports of some Russian troops being withdrawn from the Ukraine border, but that hasn’t stopped Russian saber rattling there.
Meanwhile, a new trouble spot opened on Russia’s periphery, this time in the central Asian country of Kazakhstan, the largest (in terms of square miles) of former Soviet republics. Early this week, mass protests broke out over gas price hikes. When protests did not end after the price hikes were reversed and government officials resigned, Kazakhstan’s strongman President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sent in the troops.
When those troops were not able to restore order, President Tokayev dialed Moscow for help and President Putin sent Russian troops. Today, President Tokayev effectively gave his soldiers “fire at will” orders to disperse protesters.
Kazakhstan has pretty minimal ties with the US and factors little in American strategic interests, so the Biden administration is right to take the “call for calm” approach in this case. Still, that hasn’t stopped Russian and Chinese officials from insinuating Western-aligned regime change conspiracies are afoot in Kazakhstan. Putin also has an opportunity to flex some muscle here in a low risk context that could be used in the more high risk Ukraine context.
January 14: Russian resolve
Last week saw Russia engaged in two crises on its periphery: Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Having sent troops to help restore order in Kazakhstan, Putin demonstrated to a certain degree that Russia is able to keep it’s house in order while assisting its allies. Russian troops began pulling out of Kazakhstan, ostensibly with order restored, but the Kazakh government and Russia continue to allege the uprising was influenced by outside actors.
On the Ukrainian front, another round of talks with America, NATO, and European countries may have bought some time for Ukraine to prep its defenses, but as far as Russia is concerned, if NATO is not willing to promise an end to its expansion there’s nothing more to talk about, and NATO officials now fear an impending attack.
In the US, President Biden promised punishing sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine, but a Republican-sponsored Senate bill to sanction the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the event of an invasion was sidelined (likely domestic payback to Ted Cruz for holding up Biden ambassadorial appointments, and Republican opposition to voting rights legislation more broadly) while Democrats put forward their own. To a certain degree, the failure of a sanctions bill, though arguably an overbroad one, demonstrates a certain level of bluffing behind the Biden administration’s sanctions threats.
And it appears that’s a bluff Russia, and now North Korea, are increasingly willing to call.
January 21: “The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming!”
Last week, NATO claimed that talks with Russia had bought some time, a stunning admission that Russia was more likely, not less likely, to invade Ukraine. An assessment President Biden appeared to confirm.
This week, alarm bells continued to go off as Russia continued stationing troops near Ukraine, and now in Belarus (for training purposes, allegedly), and continued making demands that America and NATO are unwilling to meet (stopping NATO enlargement).
President Biden made things worse by referring to impending Russian aggression as a “minor incursion,” which received a sharp rebuke from the Ukrainian government, and swift backpedaling by the administration… and an extra $200 million in military aid.
But it’s that confusing messaging of “we’ll stand strong against Russia” but “it’s only a minor incursion” that creates incentives for Russia to keep pushing, and it appears likely to do so.
This bumbling approach to foreign policy crises was supposed to end with the Trump administration and the arrival of the apparently more experienced Biden foreign policy team, but as I’ve noted before, this “more experienced” team doesn’t have a lot of marks in its “wins” column. Just because you have experience as a function of time doesn’t mean you’re good.
January 28: US-Russia diplomacy: Always “Blinken”?
As Russian/Soviet ships turned away from the American naval blockade of Cuba during the Cuban missile crisis, Former Secretary of State Dean Rusk famously remarked: “We were eyeball to eyeball and I think the other fellow just blinked.”
Well, we’re eyeball to eyeball with Russia again, this time in Ukraine, and in a comically unfortunate twist of fate, America’s chief diplomat is Blinken.
This week, the Secretary of State and others continued their furious tempo of diplomacy trying to stave off a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Threats have slowly been ratcheting upward with the latest redline being putting a stop to the Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline should an invasion occur. Such a move would significantly impact the Russian economy while also putting downward pressure on Germany’s energy supply chains in the middle of winter. That conundrum seems to be what’s motivating Germany’s uncharacteristically quiet and feckless approach to Ukraine diplomacy despite Secretary Blinken’s insistence that a unified response from Europe will follow any Russian aggression.
Despite the tough talk, the US doesn’t seem to think a war will be averted as the US embassy in Ukraine is urging Americans to leave the country.
In a strange twist this week, Ukraine seemed to suddenly change its tone on the imminence of war. While talking heads and decision makers in America continue to talk as though war is imminent, Ukraine seems to be wanting everyone to ratchet down the tough talk a little bit.
Russian troops aren’t moving off the border, and naval assets appear to be pre positioned in the North Atlantic in a show of force countering last week’s NATO deployments, but even some Russians seem to think this is all theater.
I’m wondering if Ukraine is feeling more confident it can repulse an attack now that the military aid from the US and others is coming in, and is now getting concerned that the situation is spinning out of control.