The Deep File: The (Un)surprising October
In which, the Democrat’s summer optimism falls with the autumn leaves as the midterms approach.
October 7: Midterm home stretch
We’ve got almost exactly a month to go to Election Day 2022 (November 8), which means we are now into the homestretch… and I would say it’s still too early for predictions.
What polling is showing us is that whatever bump Democrats got in the summer off of the abortion issue has faded behind economic concerns, the Republican Party image has improved on the economy and national security, returning to traditional strengths with voters at a time when those two issues are areas of concern; Hispanic voters continue to move away from Democrats; and American voters are cooling on interest in third party candidates suggesting that even Indepedents may not find the Democratic Party’s pitch attractive.
Additionally, Democrats are facing legal setback in Georgia where attempts to reverse that state voting reform law appear to have faltered with GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker leading in the polls.
Small wonder, then, that scandal has appeared to suddenly hit Walker’s campaign, the Party is resorting to ethically dubious information campaigns, and President Biden has moved to grant a mass pardon to violators of federal marijuana possession laws (gotta get some voters back out there).
I would expect President Biden to continue to leverage executive power over the next few weeks in similar attempts to win votes. He’s not out of the campaign trail much, and that’s probably by design as his missteps make him a potential campaign liability for embattled candidates. Democratic strategists probably reason that the President can do more in the Oval Office by signing executive orders that provide red meat for the base… except, some of those executive orders don’t seem to be going anywhere fast.
And with the Supreme Court back in session, let’s not forget that venue could generate further surprises.
October 14: Democrats - disconnected or “elitist cabal of warmongers”?
With less than a month to go to Election Day, Democrats did themselves little favors this week in demonstrating they were up to the challenges of leading and governing in the current global and national climate. I’ve said before that one of the main struggles for the Democratic Party is their ability to connect with voters, and boy did they become apparent this week.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was back out saying the economy was fine with President Biden endorsing that view. The words were barely out of their mouths when September inflation numbers came in showing a continuing climb, and Social Security announced its highest cost of living increase in 40 years (think of this as another form of debt spending as Social Security now has to keep up with inflation). The inflation news coupled with warnings of impending job losses and wealth contractions has people hunkering down for a recession the President is (mostly) sure isn’t coming.
To add to the misspeak, gaffes accidental and intentional only add to the Democrats’ competency problem. A congressional candidate (admittedly mixing her phrasing up) swore she’d back “Big Pharma” over her constituents when in office, and reports indicate that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas was aware that the infamous “whipping” incident at the border was not true, but ran with the story anyway.
In Los Angeles, the Democrat-dominated city council was convulsed by scandal when leaked audio caught a council member using racial slurs. That council member has since resigned, but for a Democratic Party desperately trying to hold its multiracial coalition together, such high profile evidence of racial fissures within the Party bode ill.
The Democrats could probably survive this election on the charge of incompetency, but former presidential candidate Representative Tulsi Gabbard made a high profile exit from the Democratic Party this week calling it an “elitist cabal of warmongers.” Ouch, if that name sticks…
October 21: The out of touch leadership class
The original headline for this section was “the out of touch President” because despite the absolutely dire economic picture and the near universal belief of impending recession, President Biden has stuck by his rosy economic prognostications… even as he again released petroleum from the strategic reserve to ease gas prices.
However, I then noticed a story on Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacy Abrams suggesting that people could offset their inflation losses by getting abortions/having fewer kids, and the EU climate chief bizarrely suggested that residents aim for no energy as the “cheapest energy.”
I’ve already talked about President’s Xi’s out of touch speech in China, and to a certain extent, such disconnect from reality is anticipated in authoritarian systems like China and Russia.
But in liberal democracies like America and the European nations it’s harder to fathom. Why would leaders vying for elective office insist on things that are not, or suggest patent absurdities as solutions to real, pressing problems?
The election clouds gather
The reason it's harder to fathom disconnected leadership in a liberal democracy is because of the feedback loops provided by media coverage and elections. In the case of the party in power, the Democrats, its crumbling coalition of minority voters and suburban women clearly suggests a feedback loop flashing significant warning signs.
But as Democrats from the President down to mayoral candidates double down on their abortion messaging, they continue to slide, even in blue states, even against opposition candidates they were sure they could beat.
A possible explanation is that the feedback loops themselves are broken. A majority of Americans believe the federal government is too powerful, that democracy is not working that well (which partially explains why many support voter ID laws), and that the media is not trustworthy. Lines of communication between the people and their representatives are breaking down, and it’s partially due to the fact that the representatives aren’t listening very well.
October 28: What matters in the midterms?
Readers of this newsletter know that I’ve been standing firm on a “red wave” position all year long, even during the rather brief “Biden bounce” in the summer. I see no reason to change that assessment, even though the President continues to be dismissive of the latest poll numbers that include widening GOP advantage and a new low for Biden.
The discussion this week in the political media was trying to comprehend this apparently sudden burst in Republican energy and traction. Was it the polls just getting more accurate? Flagging American optimism and frustration with the party in power? Joe Biden confirming his plans to run for reelection? A more diverse Republican Party?
There may be (very) short term poll influences here, but the core issues of the election (the economy, crime, etc.) haven't really changed for many Americans. While more Americans are now rating these issues as more salient now, they were always high salience issues, which Democrats appear to continue to struggle with. Despite last minute pivots to try to portray Republicans as threats to the economy and democracy, Democrats are merely revealing their lack of a substantive platform. As Speaker Pelosi (unwittingly) said this week, the Republicans have the advantage of “unlimited facts” going into the homestretch, and they’ve been locked in on repeating those facts while voters are feeling the effects of those facts. There’s an alignment there that just doesn’t benefit the Democrats and hasn’t benefited them all year.
November 4: One final note on the midterms
In a sense, Biden’s “save Democracy, vote for us” speech may be his last desperate appeal to Americans to ignore his administration’s appalling track record (he even alludes to that in a striking moment of honesty in his speech) before Tuesday’s midterms. But Republicans have remained dogged in not letting the American people forget that track record.
The latest round of reporting continues to indicate Republican gains, though some Democratic-supporters hope it won’t be as bad as polls indicate. It may just be a “normal” loss for the Democrats and not a “red wave”, but a loss of Congressional control would mean a hamstrung President, and losses in state legislative and governor races would certainly indicate that the “democracy is on the ballot,” “abortion is on the ballot” pitch Democrats made was a bad bet.
Indeed, the circular firing squads are already forming in the Democratic Party and some observers are already writing early post mortems about the Democrat’s stunning lack of depth in high profile races.
All that to say, even “modest” GOP gains could have fairly large repercussions for the Democrats not just in terms of this election, but even in terms of future presidential candidates.