The Deep File: The Democrats’ Struggle to Govern
In which, I review the month where Biden’s honeymoon period ended.
A trend I’ve been noticing just below the surface of political journalism in the US is the struggle of the Democratic Party to govern (see my podcast with Dr. Tom Patterson for a brief discussion on this topic). It’s often discussed or explained (away) in terms of obstructionist Republicans, systemic inequities, resistant segments of the voting population, etc., but boil it all down and it comes to the same point: Democrats appear to have (again) made the mistake of overpromising and under delivering. Just in the month of June, as we move into the closing of the Biden administration’s second quarter and the start of Congress’ summer recess there’s been abundant evidence of this trend.
June 4: Can the Biden Democrats govern?
On the homefront, the Biden administration is faced with shrinking room to maneuver.
Although Biden’s public approval numbers are generally good, they are almost entirely buoyed by his team’s handling of the pandemic. As I’ve been saying in this space for weeks now, that “pandemic bonus” in the polls is ending, and people will start watching more traditional indicators of presidential success like the economy where a second straight month of lukewarm hiring and hovering inflation spells trouble.
And the Biden administration does need to watch its step with those public approval polls as some of its major policy positions and governing concepts (as well as its continued incompetence at the border) are out of step with the public.
In an apparent acknowledgement that the Biden administration recognizes the weak hand its playing, the President has made major concessions to the Republicans on the infrastructure bill that will dramatically shrink the price tab. Despite loud calls to end the filibuster in order to push through the infrastructure bill, key Democratic Senators have stated their opposition to such a move, which no doubt contributed to Biden’s concessions on infrastructure and likely in other places as well. He just doesn’t have the votes for a bill that would be moved through budget reconciliation and over the filibuster.
June 11: The weakening Democratic coalition
As President Biden travels to Europe to shore up ties with European allies and (hopefully) brush back a gleefully trolling Russia, he faces an increasingly difficult political landscape both at home and abroad. To an increasing number of observers, Biden and the Democrats, for all their talk of the virtues of democracy and alliances, are increasingly out of step/touch with those same allies and voters on critical issues.
The increasing difficulties surrounding the passage of an infrastructure bill is widening the gap between the establishment and progressive wings of Congressional Democrats. Emblematic of that widening intraparty rift, Senator Joe Manchin’s defense of the filibuster AND opposition to HR 1 has placed Biden’s entire legislative agenda in jeopardy, infuriating progressives.
June 18: Manchin’s maneuvers
Senate Democrats, as expected, triggered budget reconciliation processes in order to push through a more expansive form of the infrastructure bill, though it likely won’t be as big as the Biden administration’s initial proposal.
Debate now shifts to voting rights with progressive bill being advanced in the Senate. Joe Manchin, fresh from his star turn in messing up Democrat designs on the infrastructure bill, proposed a compromise bill on election law as well, which was quickly dismissed by Republicans, but received support from an unlikely source outside the chamber: Stacey Abrams. Abrams has been a vitriolic opponent to voting law changes in her native Georgia, but backed Manchin’s proposal even though it contained elements of the Georgia law. The bill will be voted on by Tuesday as Congress prepares to leave for its summer recess, but it’s unlikely to go anywhere.
And just to follow up on the topic of Biden’s approval ratings, which seem to be critical to Democrats ability to move legislation forward, they’re underwater now in one poll.
June 25: Remember when I said Dems were out of step with voters…?
Well, just how far out of step was given evidence statistical and anecdotal this week.
An example of the statistical level, Joe Biden’s poll numbers in Iowa dropped to a 43% low before a Fox News poll put the national average at 56% (RCP average stands at 53%). What the RCP average captures that the other polls do not is the closing gap between the approval and disapproval ratings from Biden. There was a 20-point difference between approval and disapproval in January and now it's less than 10-points. Biden’s approval is trending downwards and nearing an inflection point, at which point even the left of center Atlantic acknowledges Democrats will be hard pressed to make gains in the midterms or even hold on to what slim majorities they have. For their part, conservative leaders are feeling pretty bullish about the future while progressives grow increasingly restive.
Now, it’s still 2021, polls are fickle and all that good stuff, but the anecdotal evidence is piling up on the Democrats’ struggles with effective governance: the sweeping voting rights bill got stymied by a GOP filibuster (and most of the voters Dems claim to be protecting support voter ID anyway), Biden has bowed to a trimmed down version of his infrastructure bill (more on that below), Democratic governors are under fire in critical states with California’s Gavin Newsom officially on the recall ballot, and crime spikes are hitting Democrat-controlled cities across the country. At every level of governance, Democrats are struggling to deliver.
I’ve noted all these trends in prior newsletters, but what I haven’t covered yet is the mayoral race in New York City. In an interesting twist, the winner of the Democratic primary for that office happens to be a black man campaigning on a law enforcement platform. In a Democratic Party more frequently heard to be saying “defund the police,” and “modern policing is a tool of white supremacy,” Eric Adams is a somewhat unique voice and it's a message deeply scarred NYC voters appear to be responding to. Even Adams thinks he’s the new look Democratic Party.
But will the national party leaders and star personalities be willing to change their tune? Some still seem pretty stuck on playing racial identity politics or focusing on tangential issues, which seem to have, at least in part, contributed to this “out-of-stepness.”
P.S. Just a reminder that I will be out for the month of July and billing on subscriptions will be paused. You can still enjoy Tim Talks Politics content here, or by catching up on my podcast, or reading other essays at www.timtalkspolitics.com.