The Deep File: The Bottom Falls Out for Biden
In which, after a post Dobbs summer of love for Biden and the Democrats, a worsening economy, and policy and messaging missteps bring reality crashing back in on election prospects.
September 2: Weird election
Let’s catch up this wild ride to the American midterms, shall we? Just a couple months ago, the Democrat Party’s goose appeared cooked as inflation kept peaking, gas prices kept soaring, legislation kept faltering, and the President couldn’t stay on a bike. It just didn’t look good.
The shoe appears on the other foot now. In just a couple weeks, major legislation was passed, Biden’s approval ratings ticked back up, primaries appeared to be going well for the Democrat’s establishment wing and Donald Trump’s picks were getting decidedly mixed results in primary outcomes. On top of that, the Roe overturn appeared to really be rallying Democratic voters and the generic ballot gap started tilting towards Democrats.
Democrats appear on the upswing and the opposition in disarray, but that wasn’t the message President Biden went for on Thursday night as he used the bully pulpit to vilify the Trump-aligned wing of the GOP in starker, harsher terms than he ever has to date. The President who started his term with a message of unity doubled down on some of the most divisive rhetoric of his presidency. You really should read the whole speech. It left me incredulous that such a speech could be given at a moment of electoral advantage, even triumph. Case in point: Alaska. In a special election, Trump-backed Sarah Palin lost to Democrat Mary Peltola giving Alaska its first Democratic Rep in 50 years. That doesn’t sound like MAGA Republicans are posing a major threat to American democracy, yet that’s what the President is saying. It’s yet another strange moment in a strange election cycle. Like I said last week, a lot can still happen before November.
September 9: President Biden channels his inner Norsefire
Some readers may not quite get the reference in the headline, so a little context first: Norsefire is the name of the fictitious authoritarian party that rules a dystopian Britain in the graphic novel turned film V for Vendetta. Norsefire is portrayed as a religio-nationalist right wing party, but when you see this image:
Alongside this image:
And this party motto:
“Strength through unity, unity through faith.”
Next to this phrasing
“That’s why tonight I’m asking our nation to come together, unite behind the single purpose of defending our democracy regardless of your ideology….
And if we all do our duty — if we do our duty in 2022 and beyond, then ages still to come will say we — all of us here — we kept the faith.” [emphasis added]
The parallels are rather uncanny.
I briefly touched on Biden’s speech in last week’s newsletter, but now that it’s had a week to marinate, it gives us an opportunity to assess whether it had its intended effect.
What effect was that? A timely warning of an impending danger? That’s what progressive commentators said. A crass political ploy to divide the opposition and split off independent voters from backing Republican candidates? That’s what conservatives said.
Being a conservative myself, it’s much easier for me to buy the latter case. I mean, when you go to all the trouble to give a prime time speech at one of America’s sacred historical sites outlining the dangers of a “semi-fascist” group of extremists, but then can’t seem to really clarify who they are 24 hours later; and when you paint this dire picture of dangerous MAGA activists, but then your own party props them up in primaries to gain electoral advantage… Well, let’s just say the circumstantial evidence really stretches credulity. That’s not to say defenders of the speech and its warning are incorrect to note that American democracy is threatened by something. I would agree with them on that front. It’s just, I think they'd be surprised to discover that the threat may be emanating from the man behind the bully pulpit who is concrete, real, and in power as opposed to some ill-defined group who the same man can’t seem to keep straight in his own mind.
September 16: Back to form for Biden?
Last month, it appeared that Team Biden was going from strength to strength in terms of legislative wins and improving midterm prospects. In fact, some were feeling so good, Speaker Pelosi was even talking about Dems holding onto the House come November.
But Biden is gonna Biden, and if there’s one thing the President has demonstrated himself an absolute master at, it’s the “awe shucks” gaffe that is either endearing and forgotten, or fatally counterproductive.
This week, it may have been more the latter. It started with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer throwing cold water on the prospects of Democrats retaining the House majority, then the President hosted a celebratory event at the White House to take a victory lap over the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. Yet even as Biden was speaking, new inflation numbers revealed inflation continued its upward march in August and the stock market lost 1,000+ points. Within 24 hours, mortgage rates reached levels not seen since the ominous economic year of 2008.
The events have happened too close together to impact polls as of this writing, but despite marginal improvements over the last month, President Biden’s job approval ratings are staying stubbornly low.
Can Democrats still outperform in the midterms? Perhaps, but with cracks in the voter base continuing to expand, Democrats will find themselves in increasingly tight competition with the GOP in the midst of a pretty evenly divided electorate.
September 23: Going down with the Party?
Closer to home, after a summer of gathering momentum, President Biden and the Democrats appeared to have run out of steam in the back stretch of the race to the midterms.
External to the Democratic Party, the Fed’s sizable increase of interest rates sends a clear signal that inflation still needs taming and that rough economic waters are ahead. The housing market continues to drop and other leading economic indicators are not looking good.
It’s not a good electoral landscape to be sure, but former President Bill Clinton believes the Democrats can still do OK in the midterms provided they “say the right things.” Yeah, about that….
The master of misspeak, President Biden (again!) suggested America would come to the defense of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, which his team rushed to walk back. Then Biden said the pandemic was over and Speaker Pelosi tried to soft pedal that. “Saying the right thing” (whatever that means) just doesn’t appear to be the President’s strong point. At this point, the cycle of Biden saying something only to have his staff or senior Democratic leaders walk it back is becoming a punchline.
To make matters worse for the Democrats, the issues they were targeting over the summer (abortion most notably) are rapidly falling in salience for voters, and even the recent row over busing immigrants seems to be breaking the GOP’s way. Once again, it appears as though Democrats are out of step with the American public, but many high profile Democrats don’t seem to be adjusting course or heeding President Clinton’s advice.