The Deep File: Our COVID Conundrum
The last month has shifted the public discussion on COVID-related policy in a decisively political and unscientific direction.
I don’t know about you, but ever since the Biden administration went all in on vaccination mandates, the COVID conversation has changed. The social pressure for vaccinations was already intense, states and corporations were already pushing vaccination requirements, but the prospect of the full might of federal government writing such a requirement into law and singling out a distinct subpopulation of US citizens for coercive compliance changed the tone of the debate and not for the better. Where it ends is still unclear to me, but I do believe that September 2021 marked something of a turning point in America’s COVID-19 saga.
September 3: Riding the COVID pendulum
COVID moves down the list of stories to cover this week, which is interesting considering that the Delta varian continues to run its course across the country. What stood out to me this week is the confusion of the reporting on COVID. It seriously feels like we’re on this pendulum between stricter control measures and a recognition that “COVID zero” just isn’t a feasible policy goal.
On the one hand you have the Biden administration calling for vaccine boosters, but you have FDA officials and others disagreeing with the efficacy of such a move (and other countries experiencing problems with vaccines). You have countries calling for vaccine passports and generating mass protests (super spreader event, anyone?) as a result. Indeed, with the increasing awareness that vaccines, even with boosters, are no permanent solution, it makes those vaccine passports sound almost naive. But, if you’re a vaccine producer, it’s all good business.
In California, where I live, this looks like celebrating hitting a high threshold for partial vaccination, but still seeing rising cases and hospitalizations.
For all the talk of “following the science” it feels like the politics of COVID are making us lose the thread of just what the science actually says, and what its implications are for daily life.
September 10: Biden’s COVID offensive
Progressive Presidents from Woodrow Wilson to Joe Biden have long used the rhetoric of war to describe their domestic policies, so it should come as no surprise that Biden’s “war on COVID” got a - wait for it - shot in the arm yesterday as the Biden administration announced a multi-pronged, sweeping strategy for combating the bug over the next six months (that is their specific timeframe).
A vaccination mandate for all federal employees was largely anticipated, but what was more surprising was the elimination of regular testing options, and the attempt to require private businesses of 100+ employees to mandate vaccines as well.
In remarks announcing the new plan, Biden made no bones about who was to blame for COVIDs continued presence: the unvaccinated. So, for the Biden administration, the answer is simple: increase vaccination rates, and leverage state power to do so.
But, perhaps that answer is too simple. Data coming from heavily vaccinated Israel indicates that vaccinations, though they may slow deadly COVID, won’t necessarily decrease case counts or end waves. The data is anything but clear on the efficacy of the proposed mandates, and it's also unclear what the Biden administration’s standard of “victory” is in this “war”. Additionally, we’re only just starting to study the potential longer term effects of these vaccines.
We’ve just learned some painful lessons about open ended commitments to war without clear objectives and misinterpreted (willful or otherwise) information, are those lessons being brushed aside so quickly?
The power move drew immediate howls of rage from governors and multiple states immediately pledged to challenge the new mandates in court. The RNC looks set to jump into the lawsuit game as well.
September 17: COVID and the health of public health mandates
It seems as though the worst of this latest COVID wave is behind us as cases are dropping. However, deaths are still rising, marking one of the deadliest periods of the pandemic in the US since early this year.
While this has lent urgency to the Biden administration’s push for vaccine mandates in one guise or another, the record on the efficacy of such strict policy is increasingly mixed and problematic.
In Europe, the UK yanked plans for vaccine passports, while Italy doubled down on them.
Meanwhile, experts are suggesting that the drive for booster shots may be premature, and a new study notes a worrying rise in childhood obesity (and obesity overall) in the last year and half (sitting at home lockdown/quarantine will do that to ya).
Meanwhile, China is still struggling with this pandemic. They have not solved it.
My takeaway on all this is to again ask the question that I’ve asked repeatedly: Is the cure worse than the disease? There have been, and continue to be, worrying indicators that we’ve reached that point.
September 24: Which COVID economy?
“Here, in our little village in America, you might say everyone of us is a fiddler on a roof…”
It’s hard to feel balanced as the American economy tries to rebuild itself in a pandemic/post-pandemic age. It seems as though we’re dealing with the emergence of parallel economies.
On one hand, the macroeconomic measures look good. On the other hand, we’re working more hours. On one hand, you hear talk of the “Great Resignation” and very dynamic labor market, which means lots of open jobs. On the other hand, though, jobless claims are ticking upward. On one hand, it appears as though the fundamentals of the American economy are stable and strong. On the other hand, policy debates in DC have the government on the brink of shutdown and the national debt ready to spike. On one hand, the IPO market continues to be bullish. On the other hand, home prices are pricing first time buyers out of the market.
You may ask, “What does this mixed economy mean?”
October 1: COVID is down, but mandates… keep going up?
I gotta admit, I’m losing the thread on COVID. The hyperbolic debate over vaccines and vaccine mandates is getting waaaaay out of proportion to the actual threat/problem of COVID. In fact, it seems as though cases are going down while restrictions related to vaccines and the unvaccinated are going up. At least, that’s what my news feeds were looking like (and my home state, too, in fact).
For example, while the overall trend has been an ever widening gap between cases and hospitalizations and deaths from COVID leading countries like Norway to lift restrictions and anticipate a more manageable bug, America has responded to these trends by taking a diplomatic swipe at Norway and doubling down on vaccination mandates. In their most extreme forms, those mandates are forcing nurses and medical professionals, and other first responders out of jobs; and threatening to upend local economies ill prepared for another wave of restrictive mandates.
The fixation on vaccination mandates is quite strange to me, given the improving COVID picture globally (including vaccination rates here in the US), and the announcements of antiviral drugs being deployed for treating the illness. The severity of the illness is declining and our toolbox to fight it is expanding, so what’s with this monolithic approach? Especially when it’s not helping Biden’s poll numbers.
I’m not even sure we’re actually talking about COVID anymore, so much as we’re talking about dueling narratives of COVID with YouTube putting its thumb decisively on the scale in favor of one of those narratives. Rogue reporter Matt Taibbi diagnoses this phenomena as religious fervor masquerading as news. It’s a religious war complete with high priestesses and apostles, apparently.