The Deep File: It’s the end of the Roe as we know it…
In which, the month of May heralds the end of a landmark Supreme Court case, and reshapes the abortion debate in America.
May 6: A compromised Court?
That the Supreme Court would be ruling on Roe v. Wade by June of this year was no secret. That they would likely be overturning Roe in whole or in part was highly likely. In fact, even progressive news outlets were anticipating as much.
What was not anticipated was a precedent breaking leak this week of an alleged majority opinion written by Justice Alito. Again, the ruling was anticipated, and it was anticipated to break against Roe. So, why has this leaked opinion generated a weekly news cycle so breathless that even the war in Ukraine has come off the front page?
First, it’s the nature of the leak itself. Though Chief Justice Roberts confirmed the authenticity of the document, he stressed that it was a draft opinion. So, while it indicates the anticipated majority against Roe, it’s not the final ruling and opinion itself. It could be, but right now it is not. And, in an institution that’s very tight on leaks to protect the jurors and their deliberations from public pressure, a leak of this magnitude constitutes a threat to the integrity of the Supreme Court’s processes and legitimacy.
Second, the leaked document itself indicates a full throated rejection of Roe that has pro-lifers celebrating, but pro-choicers seeing the end of the world as they know it.
The first point should be deeply concerning to all of us who value America’s constitutional system. The second point should be a distant concern and shouldn’t surprise any of us. However, the news cycle has been dominated by the polarized reactions to the leak, and has turned the event into the kind of pearl-clutching crisis, click-based news platforms literally make their money off of.
The downside of such warped media coverage is that the most crazy reactions are getting attention, which is raising the real possibility of violence in general and threats directed at sitting Justices specifically. In remarks eerily familiar to comments Donald Trump made during his presidency, VP Kamala Harris sounded a dangerously similar note to supporters of Roe.
Fun fact: California Governor Gavin Newsom appropriated Trump’s “fight like hell” phraseology for his own reaction to the leaked opinion.
The cherry on top, though, came from President Biden.
Biden’s “deplorables” moment?
In direct reference to the swirling media storm around the leaked Alito opinion, President Biden said that the "MAGA crowd is really the most extreme political organization that's existed in American history."
It was a blatantly false statement that, much like Biden’s demonization of the “unvaccinated” last year, that singled out a wide swath of Americans as public nuisances at best, dangerous at worst.
The comment bears an eerie resemblance to Hilary Clinton's ill-chosen “deplorables” comment from 2016, but certainly signals that Democrats are going to be willing to go to the mattresses on abortion rights in the run up to the midterms. Indeed, Chuck Schumer is already pushing ahead with a bill to codify abortion rights. The bill is likely to go down in flames, and Senators Manchin and Sinema are not about to budge on dropping the filibuster to pack the Court, so it’s mostly all a show, but a show intended to rally a progressive base that has largely lost interest in the Biden presidency.
Will the fighting words from President Biden be enough to re-energize Democrats ahead of the midterms? Not if the economy has anything to do with it.
May 13: Pro-abortion activists go on the attack… literally
After last week’s bombshell Supreme Court leak suggested the imminent overturning of Roe v Wade, I raised the concern that the “fight” rhetoric of leaders like Kamala Harris would be taken literally by activists.
Sure enough, this week saw attacks on pro-life pregnancy clinics and churches alike while aborition activists loudly demonstrated outside the homes of conservative justices. You might think that peaceful protests aren’t as bad as vandalizing a church, or fire bombing a pregnancy center, but harassing judges in their homes is also a violation of federal law (it undermines the principle of judicial independence), so this week’s activism has been criminal top to bottom.
The Senate responded by passing legislation to expand US Marshals protection mandate over the homes and immediate family of justices, but Senate Democrats sought to give something to their pro-choice allies as well by pushing forward a quixotic bill to codify abortion rights, which was defeated by a bipartisan majority (Manchin and Sinema breaking ranks again).
Two observations on this second week of furor over the Roe leak:
We still don’t have a final decision here, which will likely keep demonstrators in the streets and on the attack in the coming days, especially since the FBI has not announced any investigations into the criminal behavior like they did after January 6, 2021.
The attacks on churches and pro-life pregnancy centers have been almost entirely ignored in mainstream news reporting (you’ll note most of the links in this segment are to conservative sources… that’s not by my choice, that’s where the information is).
Bottom line: The government and media’s response to the violence of the last week has been almost entirely one-sided.
May 20: Ominous threats
With the anticipated overturning of Roe v. Wade approaching, activist social media accounts are keeping law enforcement busy investigating a rising tide of violent threats against the Court and its Justices.
The family amidst the culture war (in America and China)
This month, we’ve been tracking the leaked Supreme Court ruling allegedly overturning Roe v. Wade .
The furor over abortion hasn’t necessarily died down with plenty of ink still being spilled over what comes next while some states continue to pass legislation limiting abortions.
In something of a cultural plot twist, the Archbishop of San Francisco ruled that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, because of her continued advocacy for abortion, may no longer receive Holy Communion in his archdioces. The Speaker received communion in DC a couple days later while protesting the Archbishop’s authority to make such a ruling, but the decision is a rare instance of the Catholic Church publicly censuring a political official in such a manner.
While the leaked ruling signals a significant legal shift on abortion, this decision to withhold Communion may signal a cultural shift, at least in religious spheres, on the issue.
Interestingly, this week also saw the release of two sets of data showing an increase in births last year for the first time in over a decade, while marriage rates showed a decline.
The two trends don’t necessarily correlate, but I found it interesting to see those numbers in the midst of a raging debate on abortion.
Even as we debate the right to life for future generations, there’s still a recognition that 1) a positive birth rate is good and 2) marriage rates indicate a healthy society. You have to squint a little to see it, but despite the many pressures the nuclear family is under in the public square, there’s this almost irrepressible instinct to connect social health and nuclear family units.