The Deep File: Assessing 2023 and looking ahead to 2024
In which, I end 2023 by reviewing the year that was and attempt to anticipate the year that will be.
Assessing 2023
Below, is an abbreviated list from last year’s (2022) assessment of 2023. With the major, but qualified, exception of a missed call on recession, I’d say the year in global politics and economics aligned pretty closely.
High probability
Recession: Failed to materialize in a general sense thanks to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed and massive federal spending. HOWEVER, the positive effects on the macroeconomy have not led to general positive outcomes for the microeconomy.
Stalemate in Ukraine: Nailed it. The much anticipated Ukrainian summer offensive appears to have been too little too late, modest gains notwithstanding.
North Korea brinkmanship: Fairly easy call, really. If America is focused elsewhere, North Korea takes full advantage and they certainly did so in 2023 with nuke tests and spy satellites.
China saber rattling: It wasn’t just on Taiwan, but in contested waters with the Philippines and even American airspace (remember those, spy balloons?).
“Net negative” carbon emissions: COP28 yielded a first global call for a transition away from fossil fuels. While the “net negative” language hasn’t taken hold (yet), the policy implications are being pushed.
The Evil League of Evil coalesces: Russia-China-Iran-North Korea. While China has been the quiet partner (largely), there was a strong sense of coordinated diplomacy among these four, especially in terms of work in Africa, supporting Russia in Ukraine, and tacitly backing Iran’s proxy war on Israel.
Medium probability
Continuing conflict in Africa: I actually undershot this one. Last year, I was specifically looking at DRC and Nigeria, and both certainly close out the year in violence. However, the rash of coups in West Africa and the Sudanese civil war certainly emphasized the tenuous security picture in Africa.
Large GOP candidate field → lower support for Trump: Missed this one. The GOP candidate field was certainly large, but rapidly thinned out through the fall with Trump appearing to get even stronger.
Ongoing democratic backsliding: See the security tailspin in Africa.
Low probability
GOP-led House leads to investigations, possible impeachment for Biden: This was too easy. Despite the madcap antics around the Speaker’s chair, the GOP-led House ends the year with an impeachment inquiry gathering steam. However, I had rated it “low” anticipating such moves would have little effect.
AI does awesome stuff, but doesn’t take over: AI continued to wow before field leader OpenAI fired, then rehired, its CEO after a steep drop off in activity. In other words, growing pains set in for the industry in terms of scalability, cost effectiveness, and regulatory action.
Trump doesn’t win the GOP nomination for ‘24: May still be too early to tell, but I am probably going to miss on this one.
On the whole, I’d say I called 2023 pretty well on most of the big stuff.
“But, Tim, you missed Hamas attacking Israel!”
Yeah, so did Israeli intelligence, the CIA, and everybody except Iran, apparently.
Where we may be headed in 2024
It’s worth reminding readers new and old that world-changing events are by definition abnormalities. They don’t happen very often, and once they do, the following years are more about the world adapting to those changes rather than continuing to experience the same level of disruption. Rather than upheaval, it tends to look more like the dust and debris settling. At least at the global or regional level. At the local level, “dust and debris settling” can still look and feel a lot like upheaval.
So, given that framing, I’ll run off a list of high, medium, and low probability trends and events for the coming year both international and domestic.
High probability
Attempted peace negotiations in Ukraine. I don’t see how Ukraine can sustain its war effort, especially as that war effort becomes a political football in the US. Put another way, Ukraine is in its best position to negotiate right now. But is Russia ready?
Election mayhem. Russia, Ukraine, and the US all have elections this next year. Putin is assured reelection, which means Russian disinformation campaigns in Ukraine and the US (as well as Chinese disinformation) will be kicking into high gear to shift the Ukraine war in Russia’s favor, especially if any peace overtures are made by Ukraine and the US.
Taiwan also has elections next year (January 13, in fact), which means China saber rattling will be pronounced and the Taiwan strait will be quite active in the early going of 2024. Playing on the idea of China, Russia and Iran coordinating foreign policy, I wouldn’t be surprised if China ups the ante in the Taiwan Strait in some way just to test the American response.
Africa continues to fracture. Expect to see more coups, attempted coups, and civil conflict in Africa. The civil war in Sudan is ongoing, multiple military governments are struggling to establish themselves, and you have the ever present threat of jihadist violence.
Broader conflict in Israel. Israel is refusing to back down on Gaza and doesn’t have a post-war game plan for Gaza, so unrelenting war is the new status quo. However, Hamas is part of a region-wide, Iran-backed proxy network, which means those proxies are swinging into action to take the pressure of Hamas. 2024 opens with concerns of a broader Hezbollah-Israel war in the north, and Iraqi militias have claimed responsibility for a West Bank attack. All this as Hamas’ standing amongst the Palestinian population has increased.
Medium probability
A more general recession could shake up global and domestic politics. We still don’t know the extent of damage the Chinese economy has taken, household finances in America are a mess, and balance sheets in the world’s capitals are just as bad. Major international business deals also seem to be slowing. After a successful year of rate wars, the US and the EU are diverging on their interest rate policies going into 2024. In other words, I remain skeptical of claims that we’re out of the economic woods, especially when rosy outlooks on the economy predominantly fall on one side of the political spectrum.
Joe Biden/Democrats will lose the 2024 general election. The polls, the economy, the world in general has not been doing Biden any favors, but neither has his own age and family dramas. It’s hard to see how Biden gets reelected come November. Subject of a longer piece, though.
Donald Trump will likely be the next Grover Cleveland. If things continue as they currently are, Donald Trump should get his rematch with Joe Biden, and will likely best him. Indictments aside, Trump and Biden actually have records the voters can compare and at the policy level, Trump matches up against Biden pretty well.
Election violence in the US. Both Trump and Biden have spent the last several years demonizing one another (link is Trump example, I’ve already discussed Biden’s polarizing rhetoric in prior newsletters), and contributing to polarization in the US. In that time, we’ve seen a real uptick in left wing violence against the Supreme Court, civil society groups, and Christians. Meanwhile, President Biden’s administration has pulled on the levels of state power to put conservative groups and the Catholic Church in the crosshairs of federal law enforcement. Regardless of the outcome of the election, the losing side is going to feel a certain level of existential dread, which can easily turn violent.
War in South America. The end of 2023 saw an unexpected development in a longstanding border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. A December referendum in Venezuela declared territory currently within Guyana borders to belong to Venezuela, which suggests Venezuela is looking for an opportunity to reclaim the territory by force. The US and Great Britain have dispatched naval assets to the area and engaged in war games with Guyana in an attempt to deter Venezuela, but it seems like every power-hungry dictator wants to settle old scores these days…
Low probability
Donald Trump loses the GOP primary. It looks like Trump just goes from strength to strength, but the proof is in the pudding so we’ll see how things go once primaries get going next month.
Major terrorist attack in Europe and/or the US. Given the conflict in Israel and the public divide it created in the US and Europe, it’s hard to imagine an enterprising terrorist group NOT trying to take advantage of the situation.
Steady eyes, level heads
Last year, I enjoined readers to “stare [2023] down with steady eyes and level heads.” I liked the sound of that then, and I like the sound of it now. While some of the assessments above may hit you as alarming, I would encourage a “forewarned is forearmed” approach to reading all that. It’s not going to be an easy year, but it doesn’t have to be a desperate one either.
One of the big takeaways I get from reflecting on the last year and writing a piece like this one is the awareness that for the circumspect observer, even a year (or two or three) of upheaval is not completely unknown and unpredictable. Practical wisdom and prudential judgment are still virtues worth cultivating.
So, as we look ahead to 2024: Steady eyes and level heads, my friends.