The Deep File: Assessing 2022 and looking ahead to 2023
In which, I end 2022 by reviewing the year that was and attempt to anticipate the year that will be.
Where I thought we were going in 2022
Below was my general overview of of 2022 at the very beginning of the year:
In all actuality, Biden may already be a lame duck president. The big political question of 2022 will be how bad will the midterms be for the Democrats? If the inflationary economy continues (or worsens), if Russia and China score even a minor foreign policy victory at America’s expense, and if the Supreme Court rules against the government on abortion and vaccine mandates, the already grim pre-election political landscape will look positively apocalyptic for the Democrats.
Bad midterm results are probably the easiest thing to predict for 2022. After that, it’s all just assessing probabilities.
(And if you’d like to go back and look at all those probability assessments, you can read my post from last year, or just keep reading.)
Where we went
Bad midterm results are probably the easiest thing to predict for 2022.
Ouch.
On the one hand, this was my biggest miss of the year, at least in terms of it not being a terrible outcome for the Democrats. On the other hand, I got the general outcome right even if I missed the scale: Democrats lost control of the House.
Looking at some of the other probabilities I was tracking at the beginning of the year, though, my probabilities (not predictions) for 2022 held up pretty good:
High probabilities
Despite a not so terrible midterms, the Democrats did indeed continue to bleed minority voters.
Inflation ran amuck for most of the year, setting us up for a very probable recession in 2023.
A nuclear deal with Iran did indeed prove undeliverable (and may still ultimately fail).
Russia did more than increase pressure on Ukraine. My failure there was to not go far enough.
Covid continued to hang around, but diminished over time.
North Korea’s cadence of missile tests continued throughout the year.
Medium probabilities
The Ethiopian civil war did continue, briefly expanded to include other regional actors, before finally resolving in a still being implemented peace agreement.
The US Supreme Court handed down major rulings limiting federal power on abortion, vaccine mandates, and gun rights as anticipated.
Although, I will say, I did not anticipate the level of hostility directed at American Christians and pro-life advocates after the Roe overturn. I don’t anticipate that slowing down in the near term.
Democrats did succeed in delivering some legislative wins for Biden.
Low probability
Joe Manchin did not ditch the Democratic Party…. But Krysten Sinema did.
China also continued intimidation tactics on Taiwan, but did not invade.
Overall, I’d say that was a pretty good assessment of where 2022 was headed, although I’ll be the first to acknowledge that Russia’s move to invade Ukraine was definitely a big geopolitical surprise. The invasion did more to shake up global alliances and disrupt trade networks than almost anything else so far in this century. Global food supply and energy shortages, new NATO and EU members, an emerging autocratic support network between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea (too weak to call an alliance just yet), and a potential return to great power status by a rearming Japan. All that arguably stems from the ripple effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Beyond that, we had the emergence of some exceptionally good AI writing systems, the collapse of major crypto currency exchanges, and the war over Twitter.
So, what should we expect in 2023? More such world changing events? I’m not so sure.
Where we may be headed in 2023
World-changing events are by definition abnormalities. They don’t happen very often, and once they do, the following years are more about the world adapting to those changes rather than continuing to experience the same level of disruption. Rather than upheaval, it tends to look more like the dust and debris settling. At least at the global or regional level. At the local level, “dust and debris settling” can still look and feel a lot like upheaval.
So, given that framing, I’ll run off a list of high, medium, and low probability trends and events for the coming year both international and domestic.
High probability
There will be a recession in the US and much of the rest of the world. It’s already here in many respects, but hasn’t quite hit employment numbers just yet. However, inflation ate up cash reserves for most Americans so with those reserves gone, consumer spending is going to drop.
The war in Ukraine will continue throughout much of the year. Barring some major shift on the battlefield, I don’t expect any kind of ceasefire or peace negotiations any time soon.
A subplot to both recessions and the war in Ukraine will be Russia’s continued weaponization of its energy exports.
China and North Korea will both maintain their cadence of destabilizing operations in the Taiwan Strait and Sea of Japan.
The Russia-North Korea-Iran support network will tighten as three of the most sanctioned regimes in the world “huddle for warmth”. China will provide economic support to all three, but will try to avoid overcommitting to three countries that are decided liabilities to its global ambitions.
Look for a shift in climate policy discussions from seeking to achieve “net neutral” carbon emissions to “net negative.”
Medium probability
Insecurity and civil conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria are likely to draw more international attention in the global race for rare earth minerals.
Donald Trump will continue to lose support among his base as the GOP presidential field fills.
Democratic backsliding looks set to continue as this month’s election in Tunisia appears to foreshadow.
Low probability
Should Ron DeSantis choose to run, I don’t expect Trump to win the Republican nomination in 2024… but that’s a probability assessment to be made next year.
A Republican-controlled House will likely spawn a bunch of investigations of the Biden administration, but yield little in terms of real results (resignations, impeachments, arrests, etc.).
AI systems will continue to wow and impress, but will not come to full maturity in most specialized fields.
As I noted last year, that’s not an exhaustive list, but I think it hits the high points.
And, while some of those assessments above may hit you as alarming, I would encourage a “forewarned is forearmed” approach to reading all that. It’s not going to be an easy year, but it doesn’t have to be a desperate one either.
One of the big takeaways I took even from reviewing last year and writing this piece was the awareness that for the circumspect observer, even a year (or two or three) of upheaval is not completely unknown and unpredictable. Practical wisdom and prudential judgment are still virtues worth cultivating.
So, as we look into 2023, let’s stare it down with steady eyes and level heads.