Special Report: War in Israel
In which, Israel is once again under attack on Yom Kippur
By now, you’re aware that Israel is at war with Hamas and other Iranian-sponsored militias in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. The events of the last 48 hours are gut wrenching with over a thousand dead and thousands more injured. Among the dead are several Americans and other foreign nationals. This special report is mostly me wrapping my head around what’s going on and trying to sort out what is known, what is not known, and what could be around the corner as the war widens.
What happened
Over the weekend, Hamas, the Iran sponsored, radical Islamic fundamentalist, Palestinian terrorist organization that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007 launched a terrorist offensive into Israel in what is easily one of its largest military operations in its almost 40-year history.
The attack included multiple cyber and drone attacks on Israeli targets, followed by thousands of rockets, and waves of Hamas fighters attacking via land, sea, and even air via paragliders.
In just 48 hours, Hamas inflicted hundreds of casualties on Israelis and seized hundreds more as hostages. The initial Israeli response has been to work on retaking Israeli ground taken by Hamas, rescuing as many hostages as possible, and targeting Hamas positions inside Gaza.
This is just the opening phase, though. Yesterday (Sunday), it was announced that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu asked the Knesset for a formal declaration of war against Hamas and associated groups joining them.
Why now?
Readers of my weekly newsletter will remember that I’ve been talking about the major push being made to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. As recently as this week it seemed like the major parties were on their way to inking a deal.
Such a deal would have solidified Iran’s regional opponents into a cohesive bloc with capabilities to cooperate on defense and intel sharing when it came to checking Iran’s regional ambitions. Obviously Iran would not have wanted such a deal and would celebrate anything that would derail it. Hamas has actually indicated that Iran has done much more than merely celebrated.
For Hamas, October of 2023 is an auspicious date to lay claim to being the standard bearer of the Palestinian cause. Since taking over Gaza in 2007 after a brief civil war with the more secular Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) over contested Palestinian Authority elections, Hamas and the PLO/PA have vied for control of the Palestinian cause. Now, with support from Iran firmly behind them, Hamas likely believes it can permanently finish off the PLO’s legacy.
Some historical context
Fifty years ago, in 1973, Egypt and Syria launched coordinated surprise offensives into Israel in an effort to recapture land lost in the 1967 Six Day War. The Yom Kippur War proved to be the last effort of secular Pan-Arab nationalism to lead a unified Arab world against Israel. The resulting defeat, and subsequent Camp David Accords delegitimized secular Arab nationalism in the eyes of many Muslims whereas the successful Iranian Revolution in 1979 and mujahideen resistance to Russia in Afghanistan legitimized militant Islamic fundamentalism as a regional force to be dealt with.
Since then, Iran has worked to ensure that it was at the hub of the region-wide network of militant groups. Of course, Iran’s Shia Islamic faith was always a sticking point, especially with radical Sunni groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda. Hamas, however, was a different story. Sunni though it was, Hamas and Israel shared a common enemy (Israel) and a common policy objective (Israel’s destruction). Genocide has a way of bringing people together, I guess.
This is more than terrorism
Contrary to some Western opinion that sees this attack as merely mass terrorism, this latest attack is not just Hamas seeking to sow chaos and disrupt regional diplomacy. That’s Iran’s goal. For Hamas, this is about legitimizing its leadership of the Palestinian cause in blood, and laying claim to the mantle of leading resistance against Israel with the ultimate object of destroying the nation of Israel. Hamas means war, Israel understands this, and is preparing to respond in kind.
So, what now?
The fighting is going to get heavier before it eases. Hamas has committed a large amount of forces to this fight, and Israel is massing troops for one of its largest invasions of Gaza to date.
Meanwhile, the Israel-Lebanon border remains tense, but expect Hezbollah to make moves if things appear to be going badly for Hamas in Gaza.
Diplomatically, any “thaw” the Biden administration hoped for with Iran is now done, and efforts to normalize Israel-Saudi Arabia relations appear to be on hold.
The need for moral clarity
While the Biden administration has pledged to support Israel in its hour of need and European nations are calling for cutting, or at least reviewing, of Palestinian aid, those policy decisions do not represent any kind of moral clarity in the Western world, or even the UN Security Council, which is deeply concerning.
Harvard’s student body chose to blame Israel and its “apartheid regime” for bringing this on themselves, and the Canadian government appears to have refused to use the word “terrorist” to describe Hamas and its work. In the Democratic Party, pro-Israel Democrats came out swinging at their more pro-Palestinian colleagues in Congress.
Mudslinging aside let’s at least be clear on what we’ve got here: This is a mass terror attack that has already cost the lives of hundred of innocent people, and it’s been perpetrated by a terrorist organization whose genocidal policy priorities are a matter of public records, as is its support from Iran.
Hamas is a terrorist organization, supported by a state-sponsor, who has perpetrated a morally evil act. It should be called such, condemned as such, and punished as such.