Special Report for June 13: LA riots are part of something bigger
In which, riots in LA herald the opening move of “the resistance” and its march to June 14.
The LA riots are a big story for a number of reasons. So I’m going to spend this week’s newsletter unpacking several facets of this story because I’ve had several of you tell me that you’re unsure what to make of this. I’m with you. This is absolutely nuts and confusing.
Here’s the catch, though: That’s the point. You’re meant to be confused.
But what’s my motto here? Steady eyes, level heads.
Let’s end the confusion.
LA riots are part of something bigger
Confusion leads to hesitation, hesitation leads to loss of initiative, loss of initiative gives the aggressor the advantage. That basic logic is well known in security circles, and personal security experts will talk about how criminals leverage this element of human psychology to get the upper hand on their victims.
So who is the criminal aggressor in the LA scenario? According to California Governor Gavin Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass, Democrats, and their media allies the aggressor is the Trump administration. According to this group, the Trump administration has escalated the riots and sown chaos and confusion with his deployment of the National Guard and now Marines to quell the “peaceful protests” made up of people “having fun”.
You probably already know where I’m going with this: Newsom, et al. are wrong. The Trump administration is moving aggressively, but they’re not the aggressors here. To understand why, we need context and chronology.
Context
There are three main contextual strands to keep in mind when looking at what’s unfolding here.
Strand 1: The increasing level of comfort with violence or “direct action” that animates the left wing of American politics. I’ve been writing about this for several years now. Going back to the riots of 2020 and the rise of Antifa, and continuing with the surge of antisemitic, pro-Hamas violence starting in 2023 there is a consistent through line in left wing mass protest rapidly escalating into violence (to say nothing of the numerous instances of individual acts of violence like assassination attempts on Supreme Court justices and presidential candidates). That mass violence has received political cover from Democrats (with the courageous exception of Senator Fetterman) and media allies who continue to refer to “peaceful protests,” and refuse to condemn specific acts of rioter violence while simultaneously denouncing the “chaos” and “violence” “caused” by President Trump, law enforcement, MAGA “fascists,” ICE, etc., etc.
Strand 2: The promise of enforcing immigration law and deporting illegal immigrants not only got Trump elected, but continues to be a position a majority of Americans (including immigrants) back the President on. There’s plenty of room for debate on how to go about handling deportations, but Trump’s basic pitch to voters was, “Biden opened up borders, lost control, and we’ll get it back.” This pitch to voters probably did more than anything else to break the Obama coalition, and Democrats continue to struggle with their response. For now they’ve opted to reactively reject any executive actions related to deportations… even when the President’s authority is validated by the courts.
Strand 3: Gavin Newsom really, really, REAAALLLLLLY wants to be President in 2028. In order to do that, he initially attempted to portray himself as a thoughtful progressive with the launch of his podcast earlier this year. That podcast, however, quickly drew fire from the left wing of the Democratic base for being overly friendly to conservatives. Similar to last week’s discussion on two-level games internationally, Newsom is having to play his own two level game: Try to position yourself as a potential President while shoring up a potentially violent base you angered. This dynamic puts Newsom in a position of having to reflexively oppose Trump and toe the leftist line on the deportation policies. Newsom is a cynical, but very talented politician who rarely missteps tactically. Yet his characteristic slickness seems off in his atypically over the top responses to President Trump this week. This leads me to believe that he’s trying to placate the same base that’s condoning the violence in the streets, and hopefully ride the whirlwind to some more advantageous political port.
So those are the main strands: A President following through on a salient, popular campaign promise being opposed by an increasingly violent left wing, both of which are undermining a governor’s presidential ambitions.
OK, that’s the context. Let’s get to the chronology.
Chronology
Where did this all start anyway?
It actually started last Friday, June 6, when ICE agents executed search warrants and made several arrests of illegal immigrants with criminal records in the LA area. The arrested individuals were detained at a federal facility in LA that became the initial area of focus for protesters. However, protests rapidly spread through LA such that by Sunday, June 8, highways were being shut down, cars set alight, law enforcement officers attacked (all of which are felony crimes, btw). Things appeared to be getting out of control, so President Trump, over the objections of Governor Newsom, sent in the National Guard.
This action was a direct presidential rebuke of Governor Newsom’s leadership since it’s typically governors who order the Guard into such situations. On Monday, June 9, Governor Newsom threatened to sue President Trump for taking such an action claiming (falsely, per the Militia Act of 1903) that the President overstepped his authority as Commander in Chief. President Trump’s response was to suggest that Newsom’s refusal to call in the Guard and support its efforts in LA could make the Governor liable to arrest for obstructing the work of federal officers. June 10, with Mayor Bass announcing a curfew, a District Court ruling against Newsom, and President Trump bolstering the Guard troops with a deployment of US Marines, things appeared to be quieting down in LA.
Given those circumstances on the ground, Governor Newsom inexplicably took to the airwaves to further lambast the President in an attempt to frame himself as the protector of American democracy and the President as a would-be military dictator. Even as the situation in LA appears to continue to improve (it’s off most front pages anyway) the Governor’s office has continued to shout out this accusation of dictatorship even as Democratic Representatives and Senators from California seek to prove the Governor’s point in Washington.
Newsom’s actions are inexplicable only if you think LA’s the main story. It’s not. Though things appear to be quieting down in LA, similar protest/riots around ICE facilities and federal buildings are taking shape in major cities across the country. Why? Why now? After all, ICE has been doing this work almost from the start of the Trump administration.
Remember, remember, the… 14th of June?
Bear in mind that these arrests of illegal immigrants have been happening almost from the first day of the Trump administration (Remember the Abrego-Garcia story?). Why are we seeing protests and riots at this scale with this level of coordination and planning?
Because, it’s the opening act of something that’s been publicized for months: June 14 nationwide protests to counter a planned military parade in Washington DC celebrating the Army’s 250th birthday, and to also give President Trump the proverbial finger on his birthday.
So, let’s go back to where we started: You’re meant to be confused.
Given context and chronology, this appears to be a pretty straightforward case of federal officers doing their job, being prevented from doing their job, local and state authorities not coming to the federal officers’ assistance, things getting out of control as a result, and the President sending reinforcements to finish the job.
Media-induced confusion: The invisible story
So why does it feel so confusing? Because we’re in the middle of an ideologically-driven information war where rhetoric, selective facts, and framing devices are being deployed to shape/manipulate public opinion (If you want the high level primer on this, I recommend this excellent piece by Mark McGrath). According to data from Pew Research, people left of center may be most susceptible to such information warfare.
As a case study, here’s a sequence of headlines from Axios over the last week related to the context I outlined above:
June 6 (when this all started):
Nothing. Completely misses and/or ignores the critical context of what started things in LA.
June 7
Still nothing on LA.
But here’s a story about “Trump’s Army parade.”
June 8
“What to know about protests to Trump’s June 14 parade.” -Mark your calendars for nationwide protests! Note the large numbers of protests scheduled for LA and other major blue cities on the West and East coasts.
“Trump deploys National Guard amid fiery LA County protests.” - This article really gives you a sense of how Axios is going to cover the story going forward. They don’t provide context on how the riots started until two thirds into the article.
June 9
“LA protests: What to know as the National Guard mobilizes.”
“In photos: Trump Deploys National Guard to LA as ICE raid protests flare for 3rd day.”
“National Guard in LA: What they can do after Trump called them in to quell protests.” - Three straight stories on Trump deploying the military. Remember the context. This is more about “Trump’s army parade” and June 14 than it is about LA.
“Los Angeles protests add friction to Trump’s feud with California.”
June 10
“LAPD chief says police had “no formal notification” of Marines deployment to LA protests.”
“California union leader faces criminal charge for protesting ICE raid.”
“Trump using L.A. unrest to push his big bill in D.C.” - Again, the focus is Trump and politics, not LA.
“Unrestrained Trump flirts with Insurrection Act as Marines deploy to L.A.”
“LA protests ignite anti-ICE demonstrations across the country.” - For having missed the story on June 6 and 7, Axios sure seems to know its significance now.
“Nearly half of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of protests: Poll” - “Nearly half”. Translation: More than half are supportive or ambivalent, and this separate poll actually contradicts the headline.
“Troops deployed to LA have nowhere to sleep and lack supplies: Newsom.”
“Trump pledges “very big force” for June 14 parade protests.” - Axios is really into this parade + protest thing.
“Marines in LA as ICE protests spread to more U.S. cities: In photos.”
June 11 - The LA Times reported that LA appeared to be quieting down as the curfew took effect, but note what happens here: The story shifts. Now it’s about “Strongman” Trump.
“Trump’s Strongman Week: Inside his show of military force.”
“Where LA protests are taking place” - Odd time to advertise this after a curfew has been announced AND things seem to be calming.
“Global poll: World sees Trump as “dangerous,” “arrogant” and “strong”. - “World”, here, refers to 24 countries.
June 12
“‘He’s lost it’: Inside Newsom’s attack on Trump’s mental fitness.” - LOL, Newsom wants to go there after publicly backing President Biden after that debate?
“We’re all concerned”: Democrats’ fears of Trump admin violence erupt after Padilla incident.”
June 13
Enough with the links, you get the picture. If you want to visit Axios.com, you’ll see that there’s little mention of the riots in LA, but there are still two stories about that darn parade.
Sometimes, Axios, “a parade is just a parade.”
I choose Axios as my example news outlet here, because I consider them generally mainstream/left of center. Axios has an anti-Trump bias, but is also willing to call “BS” on the Democrats from time to time. And yet…
The headlines above certainly aren’t neutral, but they don’t just seek to paint and shape a narrative picture. They’re attempting to move your perception in a particular direction. Like I said, it’s not about LA. It’s not just about how you understand what’s going on there, that’s incidental to a broader message. That broader message is that June 14 is D-Day because we’ve got a fascist dictator ready to seize power using a military parade and immigration enforcement as a pretense, and that power grab needs to be resisted.
Steady eyes, level heads.
Typically, you hear this from me in my “year in review” articles (which, btw, my 2025 analysis is holding up pretty good, so far), but halfway through the year it bears repeating.
When I say “steady eyes” I mean pay attention to the whole picture. Don’t get sucked into the ever present “now” of the 24-hour news cycle that forces you to forget context and lose track of critical facts and timelines. Headlines and hot takes are not, and have never been, the whole story, even though our social media feeds make it seem so.
When I say “level heads” I mean don’t check your common sense, prudential judgment, and critical thinking at the door when you turn on the news or unlock your screens. Just because someone is publishing their thoughts online and you’re not doesn’t mean they know more about human nature and life than you do.
These riots are serious both in their local context in LA and in the broader context of escalating, organized violence emanating from the Left. The class between President Trump and Governor Newsom is not just personality politics, but a clash of ideas about the future direction of America in terms of policy and values. These are big issues, big questions. However, being informed about them doesn’t mean consuming the news ad nauseam. It does mean staying grounded in reality and thinking clearly. I hope this longer than usual newsletter could help you with that this week.
In other news
Regional security and economic organizations continue to weaken in Africa and China is moving to fill the void.
Amidst all the news of aid workers allegedly getting killed by the IDF in Gaza, stories emerged that Hamas is killing its share of aid workers and disrupting aid distribution.
Inflation continues to cool, which is great news for the Trump administration… provided the Fed is willing to play ball.
After almost a year of political upheaval, South Korea has got a new President.
Things are very tense in the Middle East after the IAEA censured Iran on its nuclear program and Iran threatened to double down on uranium enrichment, which threatened to undo talks with the US and invite Israeli strikes.
UPDATE: And the airstrikes came. This story is too new to really assess matters beyond noting that the Israeli strikes were meticulously planned and executed, and bear some interesting resemblance to Ukraine’s recent “Spider Web” operation. We’re in “wait and see” mode to understand how this will impact nuclear talks with the US. Hard to see how Iranian retaliation won’t look and feel like escalation, though.