September 2: Weird…. It's all weird

In which, the energy crisis in Europe starts wrecking political havoc, China prepares for a Party Congress under international scrutiny, and things just feel weird in the US.

Europe’s emerging energy war

Between crazy weather, an impending energy crisis, and war in Ukraine, Europe has had a very rough summer, and the political effects are being felt as elections appear on the horizon. In Italy and Serbia, conservative movements are mobilizing on multiple fronts, while national governments like Germany and the Czech Republic are under pressure to do something about spiking energy prices. 

In Brussels, the European Parliament is being riven by debates and criticism surrounding EU climate policy that poses a major threat to agricultural production in the region and fueled the Dutch farmer protests earlier this summer. While it tries to quiet dissension in its own ranks, the EU is moving forward with a plan to train the Ukrainian military in a significant step forward for the bloc in terms of its Ukraine involvement. However, we’ll see how long that lasts. A winter without Russian energy is likely to put a lot of pressure on individual European countries (especially Germany) to soften their stance. 

Some softening may have already begun as an initial plan to ban Russian tourists to EU member countries was significantly narrowed in scope.

Meanwhile, Ireland is the latest country to consider joining NATO. 

In Ukraine, the anticipated Ukrainian offensive around Kherson kicked off this week as Russia feverishly works to deploy a new shipment of Iranian drones to the battlefield.

China stumbles towards its Party Congress

With the Party Congress approaching in October, the UN released a long-anticipated report indicating what we’ve known all along: The Chinese government’s brutal repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang amounts to grave human rights violations.

The timing of the report and its content has Beijing throwing an absolute fit about the UN’s anti-China position, but China really only has itself to blame here. Not only was the CCP uncooperative with UN observers, but it was also incredibly hamfisted in its denials of its human rights violations, and over the top in its attempts to portray its Uighur policy in a more favorable light. Suffice to say, the CCP will be going into the Party Congress in a very different world from the last Congress of 2017 when China’s ascendancy seemed unstoppable.

Now, China’s economy and demographics appear very unstable, the growing alliance with Russia has the US and Europe getting increasingly disenchanted with China trade, Taiwan presents a serious credibility threat, and India is flexing its muscles in the Indian Ocean both diplomatically and militarily.

At the moment, there appears to be no movement to unseat Xi Jinping from his seat of power, but I suspect it won’t be all smooth sailing next month for Xi or the CCP.