September 16: Back to form for Biden?

In which, the President’s penchant for ill-timed gaffes returns, Ukrainian troops continue to advance, Britain bids its Queen farewell, and there’s someone new in the Martha’s Vineyard neighborhood.

Long live the king

Last week, news of Queen Elizabeth II’s death was just breaking as this newsletter “went to press.” This week, the Queen’s coffin made its slow way down the length of Britain from Balmoral to its final resting place at Westminster Hall where her state funeral is to be held on Monday. Lines of people paying their respects are exceeding five miles.

Her son, the newly crowned King Charles III, will now seek to lead the United Kingdom and the British Commonwealth as its new monarch. There’s absolutely no way the poor man could begin to fill the shoes of his mother, but perhaps he has the more modest aspirations of seeking to cement Elizabeth’s legacy and ensure the continued relevance of the British monarchy. We shall see.

Drama at the UN

The 77th general session of the United Nations got underway in New York this week. The annual event is not without its drama, and the high profile speeches by world leaders have not yet been made, but a couple of things are worth noting.

First, the world is in a very different place in 2022 than in 2021. Last year, the UN met with Russia saber rattling over Ukraine, inflation had quite gotten going in the US or Europe, and the Covid-19 pandemic was barely in the rearview mirror. Climate change and pandemics were the issues of the moment. Now, the threat of global inflation and recession, stressed energy markets, and war in Europe dominate global concerns.

Second, the China-Russia-Iran bloc seems more tightly aligned suggesting something of a return to Cold War form for the UN, at least as far as the Security Council goes. Only this time, it’s not Russia leading the opposition bloc.

Third, legacy problems like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict just aren’t what they used to be. While Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas plans to call (again) for UN recognition of Palestinian statehood, the ongoing clashes in the West Bank that Abbas’ own security forces appear to be fomenting/participating in doesn’t make the case that an independent Palestinian state will be a stable one.

Who wins in Ukraine?

It has been a surprising couple of weeks in Ukraine as the long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Donbas appears to have succeeded beyond the imagination of most observers, though tragically too late for many.

The collapsing Russian lines certainly indicate a significant military defeat for Russia, but Putin insists Russia’s war aims remain the same, which raises questions about just how well-informed Putin and his advisers are of events on the ground. 

The momentum on the battlefield has certainly shifted in favor of Ukraine, but Kyiv is only able to maintain the initiative through a combination of a manpower advantage and continued Western/American support. With winter setting in and energy concerns continuing to ratchet up in Europe (even as the EU doubles down on its energy transition policies), both Russia and Ukraine may find themselves in a stagnant winter war trying to disentangle themselves.