September 1: A continent-sized “Called It!”

In which, more coups and contested elections hit Africa, China’s anti-market economy appears to be in a hole of its own digging, and the American economy appears to be digging a hole.

A continent-sized “Called It!”

One of the first Deep Files I put together was on the rapidly evolving/deteriorating security picture in Africa. That was almost two years ago, and I repeated what I’ve often repeated to my college students: Get familiar with Africa, you’re going to be hearing more about it.

The consistency with which this trend of global powers vying for influence in an environment of weak states to the point of generating conflict is becoming stunningly consistent.

With fighting in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Libya among other places ongoing, and the situation in the Sahel precarious, I noted last week that less than optimal elections were taking place in Gabon and Zimbabwe. In both countries, the incumbent presidents retained their offices amidst claims of shady dealings by opposition parties. However, it was in Gabon that the army decided to do something about it, staging a coup less than 24 hours after the president claimed re-election victory. The president has fled the country, and the coup leaders are being called upon to restore some measure of civilian rule, but we’ll see. Gabon now joins the growing list of countries that have experienced coups (eight in the last two years). 

From a geopolitical perspective, these coups are creating power vacuums across the continent that countries like Russia can exploit by leveraging PMCs (private military corporations) like Wagner to gain access to the continent’s natural resources, many of which have strategic value for emerging technology supply chains. While Russia supplies the security support for weak governments via Wagner, China is set to provide financial investment and development funding… or are they?