October 30: Pre-Election Wrap Up
In which, we look at the latest and greatest in polling, prognostications, and problems ahead of Election Day.
Election 2020
If you’ve read this newsletter for any length of time, you know that I much prefer to give you a weekly newsletter full of stories and information from across the world. But every once in awhile I need to take a newsletter and spend most or all of it on a particular topic. With a contested election imminent, I’m using this week’s brief to do a final evaluation of the 2020 election.
And because I think it’s important that we not get too caught up in the panicky reporting of mainstream news media, I’m making this newsletter accessible to paying and non-paying subscribers, so please share this far and wide with your email contacts and social networks if you think people need to take a deep breath (or two or ten) ahead of the election.
The polls
BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): Some indicators are suggesting a rapidly narrowing race, which favors President Trump.
OK, the general polling picture continues to show Biden with comfortable 8-10+ points leads in national polls, and small leads in key battleground states. But we’ve been here before in 2016 and we know how that turned out. FiveThirtyEight is pretty confident, though, that this time the polls are mostly right and the race isn’t tightening as much as some say. I am skeptical of this claim.
History may not repeat itself, but is the past prologue? Pick your aphorism, but polls that were outliers in calling 2016 for Donald Trump are again outliers in… calling 2020 for President Trump.
The Rasmussen Report actually shows the President ahead of Biden by one point nationally, the USC poll shows Trump winning reelection, and a third poll shows Biden slipping rather precipitously in the home stretch. While these are national polls, the state level polling in the Rust Belt and upper Midwest is also not looking grand for Biden.
The voters
BLUF: Issues of concern for voters are breaking evenly for both candidates.
One of the trend lines of the summer that did not look good for President Trump were the economy and overall voter satisfaction. Both have turned upward in the last couple of weeks, even as a new wave of coronavirus cases has hit the US. What does this mean?
The economy and Covid topped voter concerns throughout the summer, and interestingly enough, the improving/stable economy favors Trump, while the ongoing struggle with Covid favors Biden, essentially making key issues a wash. One potentially critical exception to that analysis is that Covid cases are surging in states generally favorable to Trump.
Additionally, voter behavior is different in the pandemic context. Early voting and mail in ballots have smashed all records, but it’s unclear if this favors one candidate over the other, which brings me to
The wildcards
BLUF: Several issues amount to potential game changers in the election.
Let’s start with the shift to mail-in voting. The overwhelming response to mail-voting, coupled with the general motivated electorate is leading to historic voter turnout, which is great. However, the record number of ballots already appears to be overwhelming the Post Office in some states, most notably Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Democrats have changed their tune on mail-in ballots and are now encouraging people to go to the polls in person on Election Day.
It’s also clear that there are some minor to major realignments occurring within and between the political parties. While Trump is losing ground in the suburban vote, Biden is losing some ground with Latinos and possibly among African Americans.
Another police shooting of black man (armed this time) in Philadelphia has triggered several nights of protests and rioting, which could have an impact on critical Pennsylvania.
The problems
BLUF: High turnout combined with a stressed infrastructure is going to slow the returns.
In addition to the already overwhelmed post offices in some states, there’s also the possibility of some voters resubmitting their ballots. Yes, because the chances of confusion and fraud are not high enough, you can actually change your ballot post submission in some states. In fact, after the last debate, inquiries about changing one’s ballot began trending on Google.
The aftermath
BLUF: Don’t wait up.
The Carnegie Endowment believes a Biden win will be apparent on election night, while others believe that a close, disputed election favors Trump. If you add up each of the up above BLUFs, I think it’s reasonable to conclude that
This election is going to be much closer than national polls have indicated
There will be a fair amount of uncertainty and confusion in the first 24-48 hours post election
There are going to be some polling surprises that may look like fraud, but may be lead indicators of voter shifts/realignments
There will still be some fraud, but it will be unclear if said fraud changes the outcome
Concerns over election violence remain high, so stay safe and do your part to be a calming influence in your circles
All that being said, bear in mind that the Electoral College doesn’t meet until December 14, and if it can’t decide on a winner, then the election will get thrown to the House of Representatives.
None of the above would be a Constitutional crisis or an illegitimate result, so don’t get yourself worked up on that front, but engage in civil society and expand your civic knowledge in order to maintain a peaceful body politic.
Field Notes
Russia tried and failed, America tried and failed, but fighting continues in Nagorno-Karabakh. Now Iran is trying its hand at regional peacemaking.
Islamist terror returned to France this week in the form of a knife attack that left three churchgoers dead.
As a ceasefire holds in Libya, evidence of mass graves is emerging, indicating the devastating human toll of the conflict.
The spreading wave of coronavirus in Europe has British officials considering canceling Christmas.
The Palestinian Authority has unveiled its counter to the spate of bilateral normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries with a proposed peace conference in early 2021.
The Eastern Mediterranean is heating up as a subregion of potential conflict and geopolitical maneuver between Egypt, Russia, Greece and Turkey.
In other elections around the world, Lithuania, Chile, and Tanzania are all headed to the polls.
Poland passed a law banning the abortion of babies with genetic disorders.
And finally, in the category of “that’s awesome!”, NASA believes there’s water on the sunny side of the moon.
Remember, this one’s on the house, so share away!