October 11: A year of war in the Holy Land

In which, Israel marks a year of war, and the Trump and Harris campaigns enter the homestretch for the 2024 election.

Slightly shorter newsletter today because I am currently traveling, but I wasn’t going to let you, my dear readers, go a week without a briefing if I could help it. Onwards!

A year of war in the Holy Land

This last Monday marked the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel, and the Middle East has been on the brink of an Iran-Israel war ever since.

This week, the IDF continued operations in Gaza while expanding ground operations in Lebanon and contemplating a response to last week’s Iranian missile barrage.

Iranian diplomats are hitting Arab capitals in hopes of bringing some kind of pressure to bear on Israel while France and the UK are both exploring bans on arms exports to Israel.

In the year since Hamas attacked Israel, thousands have died, hundreds of thousands have been rendered homeless, Hamas has lost almost all its senior leadership and military cadres, and Hezbollah has taken serious losses as well.

Though the IDF has sustained heavy losses not seen in decades, casualties have been comparatively light considering the heavy fighting coupled with constraints set on Israel both by its own rules of engagement as well as pressure by the US.

Speaking of the US, the Biden administration's consistent inability to influence any of the warring parties even as the conflict has expanded points to President Biden finally achieving what Presidents before him have long sought: A Middle East without an overbearing US presence… I just don’t think this is what Biden had in mind as being the end result. 

The fact of the matter is that an American pullback from the Middle East was going to lead to this kind of scenario, which would pull America back in, and probably with a higher level of military commitment than anyone in the US wants. And so far, that’s more or less been the case.