November 18: Summits and side steps

In which, international summits end with a whimper, the GOP secures its House majority, and job losses spread beyond the tech sector of the American economy.

Summits and side steps

The two major international summits occurring this week - COP27 and G20 headed into their respective final days with clarity on some things, but some major questions still unaddressed.

At COP27, poorer countries’ calls for funding to address decarbonizing economies and climate resilience appeared to be running into obstacles (no surprise given economic conditions globally), casting into doubt whether the conference would end with a joint statement of some kind, though host country Egypt seems to be coming out ahead.

At the G-20, countries backed a resolution condemning the Ukraine war and calling for peaceful resolution and host country Indonesia secured some massive funding pledges from the US and Europe to help with its climate policy implementation. However, what to actually do about Russian aggression or Chinese expansionism appeared to be thornier issues the conference could not address. On the sidelines, it appeared as though President Xi had some testy moments with some leaders, so the summit was not all sunshine and roses, though a pre-summit meet up with President Biden appeared to alleviate some US-China tensions (we’ll see how long that lasts).

The mixed outcomes of these two major summits indicate the difficulty of multilateral diplomacy and policymaking in the best of circumstances, and a multipolar 2022 is certainly not the best of circumstances.

Called it! GOP House majority

Yet another 2022 semi-prediction wins through… barely. I’ve already addressed the broad trends in the midterm elections results, so here I follow up with the (mostly) final outcome: the GOP now has a slim House majority, the Senate will remain in Democrat hands with a one or two vote majority pending the Georgia runoff in early December, and Democrats made gains in several state governments, though Republicans still hold a slight majority there overall.

The RCP Average generic ballot count is showing Republicans with almost a 3-point majority nationwide (48 to 45.5).

Like I noted last week, these results don’t really indicate a clear mandate for either party (despite what Democratic leaders would like you to believe), and it certainly doesn’t indicate much public support for either party’s extreme wings. 

And, while much of the post-election reporting has been on the infighting in the Republican Party, there are still troubling trends ahead for the Democrats as well. The GOP had record numbers of black candidates running in Congressional races. While most of them lost, it’s critical to note that many of these candidates were running in blue strongholds. To me, this indicates a potential shift in the black vote that could have developed in future elections. If it merges with the noticeable trend of Hispanic voters away from the Democratic Party, we’ll see a very different electoral map in the next 10 years.

More presently, though, both parties are now faced with how to govern in light of the mandate they have been given in such mixed results: work together and rein in your crazies.