Monthly Brief for April 2020: China

Introducing a monthly review of critical topics in American and world politics, and foreign policy.

Introducing a new piece of the Tim Talks Politics newsletter! The Monthly Brief is available to all subscribers, free and paid. Each month, I’ll select a topic that I’ve covered over a series of several weeks in the Weekly Brief and combine my coverage of that topic into one topical brief.

This month, it’s a look at China and its relations with the US in the wake of coronavirus. US-China relations will be at the forefront of American foreign policy concerns going forward, so here’s a quickstart guide.

If you want more of a historical overview of US-China relations, you can listen to Episode 15 of the Tim Talks Politics podcast.

I hope you enjoy this new monthly brief. If you have any feedback on how to improve it, please let me know!

April 3: The emerging geopolitics of China and Covid-19

Between suspect data, and sending faulty test kits and medical supplies to suffering countries you’d think China would be taking it on the chin in terms of public relations and diplomacy. Not if they can help it.

Between voicing conspiracy theories accusing the US of biowarfare and vigorous economic and medical diplomacy, China is working overtime to win the public perception game and achieve a stronger geopolitical position vis vis the US.

Not everyone, including Chinese residents in Wuhan, is buying the messianic message, though. Brookings believes that US-China relations are about to get rockier in the wake of this crisis, and Italy has been less than thrilled at China’s blame game.

April 10: The pushback begins

As calls mount in the US to hold China to account for its duplicity in fanning the flames of coronavirus, China has stepped up its own PR campaign. China lifted the Wuhan lockdown this week and sought to walk back its conspiracy theory of a US military-backed virus.

The niceties from Beijing don’t seem to be playing well in countries like India, and even would-be ally Iran has vocally criticized China’s less than accurate reporting on the virus. The emerging global pushback on China has Brookings concluding that fears of impending Chinese global dominance are overblown.

Still, the US, the debate is on in terms of how the US should deal with China. The Quincy Institute cautions against a vindictive approach, the Daily Signal advocates a free trade deal with Taiwan, and Disrn reports on efforts to bring multi-trillion dollar lawsuits against China on behalf of small businesses. The growing chorus of voices within the US to punish China reflect a bipartisan consensus of faulting the CCP for the virus’ global spread.

Lawfare cautions against unnecessarily angering China even as Providence Magazine notes the emergence of a true clash of civilizations.

April 17: China returns fire

China’s PR campaign to blame shift and shape the narrative on the coronavirus entered ugly new territory this week as Beijing drew attention, and implication, to African nationals living in China infected with the virus. This is just the latest tactic in what the Foreign Brief is dubbing China’s political warfare operations. The Hudson Institute, for its part, compiles a list of five major lies China is seeking to spread, including on social media, regarding the virus. The information warfare appears to have even reached into the state house in Wisconsin where Disrn reports a state legislature being approached to make a public statement praising China.

Why all the aggressive brazenness in China’s public messaging and diplomacy? These tactics were already being used over the last few months, but just this week reports suggest, and intelligence agencies indicate corroboration, that the virus “leaked” out of a Chinese lab. Whether that was intentional or unintentional is unclear and may even be beside the point. More chilling, the CCP placed a bevy of new restrictions on academic research into the origins of the virus, further limiting the information and insight to be gained from the virus’ place of origin. 

Despite all of this, Chatham House argues that blaming China for the pandemic is a distraction at a critical juncture in rolling it back, and the Hudson Institute reminds us that the PLA is seeking to make gains out of this pandemic.

April 24: China’s lost initiative?

Is China better or worse off geopolitically in all of this? As the United States and other countries begin to see some daylight in their respective battles with Covid-19, the discussion on how to respond to China is picking up pace.

Republican Senators are advancing a bill to allow American victims of the virus to sue China for damages, which National Review argues is a silly and damaging tactic. However, such gambits may become popular in an America that is increasingly viewing China, and the CCP in particular, as a threat.

For it’s part, China continues to push back against the pushback along diplomatic and information warfare lines. On the one hand, pushing misinformation on the virus, on the other hand providing surveillance drones to (US!) law enforcement to enforce quarantine measures.

But are such moves helpful or merely defensive for China? AEI reports that the virus has taken a large bit out of the Chinese economy, and the Hoover Institution notes that China’s duplicitous diplomacy is undermining the very global system it has so greatly benefited from, effectively closing the window on its own rise to power.

And that’s just what China has done by itself. The effects of China’s actions during and after the pandemic could very well push its two greatest rivals closer together: America and India.

April 30: The fight of the century?

With new polls showing 70% of Americans want to see some kind of punishment for China over Covid-19, and the EU seeming to bow to China’s pressure campaign to limit virus research, China’s standing in the world looks increasingly tenuous.

The big question for most of the talking heads and wagging fingers seems to center on whether or not we’ve now crossed the relational line from competitors to adversaries?

Of course, that means all the old Cold War tropes and comparisons are being pulled out and dusted off, and I discuss how that may not be helpful in my most recent podcast on US-China relations.