May 3, 2024: The ceasefire seesaw

In which, we’re back to the possibility of a Gaza ceasefire, anti-Israel protests grow in the US and abroad, and the Biden administration arranges deck chairs at the border.

The ceasefire seesaw

The script is becoming maddeningly familiar now: Hamas dangles the possibility of a ceasefire, Israel suggests some terms, the two sides go back and forth, President Biden and/or Secretary of State Blinken start talking like it’s going to happen, then Hamas pulls back and Israel takes a step closer to another phase in offensive operations in the Gaza Strip.

This week, the ceasefire seesaw appears to be running the same script with Hamas and Israeli negotiators in Egypt taking a look at another ceasefire deal. As of this writing, Hamas hasn’t quite pulled back yet, but the US is getting antsy about nailing both sides down to a commitment on a ceasefire, even as Israel positions itself for the long anticipated Rafah offensive and reopens border crossings in north Gaza to get aid.

What appears to be happening, now that the script has repeated itself a few times, is that Hamas is using ceasefire negotiations to delay the Rafah offensive and buy time for itself. Israel probably knows this, but is absolutely committed to getting every last hostage back even if that means putting itself at a strategic and tactical disadvantage. The US, however, either doesn’t seem to understand this or is more interested in getting Israel-Arab normalization efforts back on track. While I’m sure all parties would like to see an end to fighting for various reasons, certainly the suffering Gazans need the fighting to end, it doesn’t seem like either side is quite ready to commit to that. Certainly not for an extended period of time. Israel has unfinished business with Hamas and, well, fighting Israel is kind of Hamas’ raison d’etre. So, here we are.

Meanwhile, the US-funded ‘humanitarian pier’ to get aid into Gaza is nearing completion and not without controversy as the IDF allegedly demolished homes to make room for the pier, and at least one terrorist group is already threatening to target Western forces that try to deliver aid.