May 19: Election news - As much as things (could) change…

In which, we check in on election results in Turkey and Thailand, civil conflict spreads further in Africa, and the DOJ takes a 1-2 credibility punch.

Election news: As much as things (could) change…

We were tracking two major elections over the last couple of weeks in Turkey and Thailand.

This past weekend, Turkish voters went to the polls and… delivered a non-result. With no candidate winning a majority, things move to a runoff election between current president Reccip Erdogan and challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan did receive the most votes in the first round, but not a majority, though that didn’t stop his friends from offering their premature congratulations. I suppose that’s them breathing a sigh of relief. Still, it’s not over until it’s over. The need for a runoff certainly indicates Erdogan’s vulnerability and the Turkish economy is not a bright spot on his record.

In Thailand, though the anti-military opposition has won the right to form a government, it will face significant institutional opposition from the military and its monarchical allies. This leaves outside observers skeptical of any significant political reforms in the country, especially with active wars along Thailand’s borders. Any roll back of the military’s political influence will be quickly pitched as undermining Thailand’s security.

Fighting spreads in Africa

Sudan has occupied a fair amount of space in this newsletter the last month, but as I’ve been noting for some time, civil conflict has been percolating across the African continent.

The last week has seen civil conflict flare up in Libya and Cameroon respectively. Though violence has not been entirely absent from those two countries in recent years, the recent spikes indicate ongoing domestic political turmoil amidst general regional instability, particularly in the case of Libya.

In Sudan, the warring factions appear quite unwilling to receive any outside mediation as the fighting enters its second month.

Now, if you’ve been thinking, “What does Sudan have to do with me?”, then I’ve got a not-so-fun fact for you: Apparently Sudan is the world’s leading producer of gum arabic, a key ingredient in soda. So if you’re looking forward to some cold, fizzy, sugar drinks this summer, that supply chain could be disrupted.