May 17: When stock and prices both go up…
In which, the mixed economy, porous border, active adversaries, and alienated allies put President Biden in a general state of denial… can’t say I blame him.
This week’s newsletter is written as an attempt at “perspective taking” from the Biden administration’s point of view. If I’m President Biden, or one of his advisers (particularly those on the campaign trail), what kind of public face should I put on a weekly news cycle that is so bad even CNN, a generally safe/supportive media outlet, can’t sugarcoat it?
Because one needs access to this whole edition of the newsletter, it’s on the house this week for free subscribers!
When stocks and prices both go up…
This was supposed to be an important week for economic numbers as the April jobs and inflation reports were released. The jobs report is still generally stable, but inflation remains a difficult problem. While its rate of increase ticked down and food prices appeared to dip slightly, plenty of other classes of goods remained more than just a little elevated.
In other words, we’ve still got an imbalanced, unhealthy economy. Because the news wasn’t awful, Nvidia stock was continuing to climb, and speculation about interest rate cuts once again percolated through the markets, the stock markets powered through a mixed month to new heights.
So, stocks are setting new records and affordability of homes, cars, and basic goods… also setting records. No matter how you cut this cake, the vast majority of Americans are under economic pressure while a select few are making money hand over fist.
That produces a major political problem: simmering discontent rooted in real pain and grievance.
When border arrests are up…
The out of hand southern border was never under control at any point in your administration. No matter how you sought to manage or mismanage it, or who you put in charge, illegal crossings continued to climb as to fentanyl seizures. Even more troubling, increasing numbers of those border crossers are coming from China (see first link in this paragraph) and are on terror watchlists turning an already difficult immigration policy issue into a national security issue. So, you’re demonstrating incompetence on an issue that your party historically polls better on than the opposition, but now the issue is getting subsumed into economic and national security issues, which your opposition historically polls better on.
On top of that, a new study just dropped this week estimating that as many as one third of illegal immigrants have gained access to voter registration, a number capable of tipping an election. And you have spent the last several years saying the elections that you won were super secure and suggesting otherwise was a conspiracy theory.
When peace is the province of the competition…
Abroad, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine grind on with no end in sight (and is even looking pretty bad for the boys you’re backing in Kyiv). True, an artificial pier to deliver aid to Gaza is now in operation, and military aid is on its way to both Ukraine and Israel, which are certainly tactical wins. But is a state of financing gridlocked war and spiraling humanitarian crises really what you’re after?
Indeed, the attempts to constantly balance between the warring sides in Gaza seem to have frustrated the regional allies as the Arab League appears ready to attempt to make peace without US input.
In Ukraine, the deep freeze in US-Russia diplomacy has created a dynamic where Russia is only willing to entertain one peace plan, and it’s not the one you hope to discuss in Switzerland in June.
When another enemy may be nuclear…
A new report this week claims to have sourced information from Iran that Tehran has already built a nuclear weapon.
Gee, stopping Russian uranium imports may not have been a great idea after all. Sounds like Russia may already have an alternate buyer lined up.
When you alienate allies…
Having already noted the active enemies and jittery regional partners pursuing their own solutions in the world hotspots, you turn to your allies, those faithful few who will stand by you in thick and thin. You proceed to… lecture them on their conduct in war? Playdown signs of Russian attempts to disrupt NATO and EU friends?
Then your best response may just be a state of denial…
And that seems to be the message that the President is conveying as he cheerily dismisses polling data showing Trump leading in key swing states, and challenged Trump to June and September debates.
Crazy that these two are going to hit the debate stage before the nominating conventions have even formalized their candidacies. At this point, the American presidential election has become a deeply personal personality clash.
Biden still seems to think he can win the side by side comparison, but I suspect he’s not tracking with Trump’s more measured approach this time around, and if Biden is in the state of denial he seems to be in, I’m not sure he’s reading the record comparison between him and Trump correctly either. All that being said, I can’t entirely blame President Biden for adopting a baseline position of denialism. The picture just isn’t rosy out there. However, denialism is a short term strategy at best and it is entirely dependent on average voters joining you in your denialism. That’s getting increasingly harder for people to do.
Called it!
I’ve been skeptical in this newsletter and in the classroom over casualty figures being produced by Hamas’ Health Ministry in Gaza. The UN has now validated such skepticism, suggesting that casualty estimates for women and children have been inflated to almost double.
Circle backs
One gleam of good news for the Biden administration was Xi Jinping’s apparently fruitless attempt to win back European support.
With the clock ticking on a TikTok ban, a conglomerate led by a tech-skeptical billionaire is putting in a first offer to buy.
The movement to recognize a Palestinian state gained an Irish vote of recognition, even as the General Assembly stopped short of granting full UN membership.
Egypt has joined the South Africa-led genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. The US continues to argue against the genocide charges.
Field notes
Another ship struck another bridge this week, this time in Texas.
Taking a page from the Democrats Trump impeachment playbook, a GOP House rep has filed an impeachment article over President Biden’s conditioning of aid to Israel.
Somalia has asked the UN to end its decades-long mission in the war-torn country. It’s the latest African country to start pushing back against US and/or UN missions on the continent.