March 29: The ISIS hydra reappears
In which, ISIS-K strikes Moscow, Israel ends up on the wrong side of a Security Council resolution (and the world’s bad side), and the “Evil League of Evil” is officially a thing.
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The ISIS hydra reappears
A quiet suburb of Moscow was rocked by a terrorist attack this week that left a concert hall in flames and hundreds dead.
Four attackers were quickly arrested, confessed to the crime, and their parent organization claimed responsibility: ISIS-K, or the Islamic State Khorasan Province. Hailing from an area of Central Asia around Tajikistan and Afghanistan, you know ISIS-K as the group that carried out a suicide bombing attack in the final days of America’s Afghanistan withdrawal disaster that killed 13 servicemembers. Seems like hitting a distracted America wasn’t enough, ISIS-K decided to go after the self-styled defender of Christendom, using modern weapons to continue an centuries long war between Muslim entities and the Christian (nominal and devout alike) rulers of Tsarist/Putinist Russia.
Despite publicized warnings from the US intelligence community, it appears the Kremlin took few precautions to even verify the intelligence, but quickly pivoted to accusing Ukraine, the US, and the UK for facilitating the attack. Classic CYA move when you make a bad call like ignoring intelligence from a fellow great power: pass the buck and blame someone else.
They’re not using the term yet, but Israel is becoming a “pariah”
The level of upside down-ness that we’re witnessing in the Israel-Hamas war is reaching truly astonishing proportions.
After the Netanyahu government withdrew its diplomatic team from meeting with Biden officials over its planned Rafah organization, the Prime Minister suddenly reversed course this week and the meeting is back on. What precipitated such a change?
Things certainly haven’t improved between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government, but Bibi may be realizing that an angry friend is better than no friends after the US abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution that passed unanimously calling for an immediate ceasefire and return of hostages, and urgent attention to address the humanitarian crisis.
Of course, neither the IDF nor Hamas took the call for a ceasefire seriously as fighting continued throughout the Gaza Strip this week and Hamas continued to haggle over hostages with Israeli and American negotiators in Qatar.
The stated reasons for America’s abstention on the resolution was its failure to condemn Hamas, which is becoming a major part of America’s diplomacy on the matter as it seeks to build up a Palestinian Authority capable of taking over administration of Gaza, but without any Hamas involvement. For the US, the pathway to a ceasefire and future in Gaza that’s not controlled by the IDF runs through the removal of Hamas from a position of power.
Here’s the problem with this whole scenario:
Despite growing global condemnation of Israel’s operations in Gaza and calls for increased humanitarian aid (that’s becoming increasingly hazardous to Gazans), Hamas remains firmly in control in Gaza and isn’t losing any popularity contest with the Palestinian Authority, despite the PA’s rebranding efforts.
In other words, US diplomacy doesn’t really seem to engage the reality of Palestinian politics, while global diplomacy seems to be in denial about Hamas’ very real disregard for international law (in terms of its use of hospitals and abuse of hostages) even as it chastises Israel for its apparent disregard for the same.
So, we’ve got a disconnected US and a UN operating on double standards trying to negotiate a ceasefire between a sovereign state and a terrorist organization. Caught in the middle is a civilian populace that has no reliable national or international advocate or sponsor. It would be a farce if it weren’t so tragically, deadly serious.
Of polls and their effects
There were several polls that came out this week that appeared to influence policymakers, or least helped explain some of the challenges of policymakers. Rather than treat polls separately, I wanted to bundle them together here as a means of discussing the broader effects public opinion polls can have on not just policy debates, but policy decisions.
First the polls:
38% of women view Biden’s handling of the economy with disfavor.
A majority of Americans do not approve of Israeli actions in Gaza.
Less than half (30% to be precise) of American Christians regularly attend church.
A large majority of Hispanics are totally fine with legal-illegal language when it comes to discussing immigrants and their status.
Second, the effects.
Axios reports that the Biden administration is largely dropping its use of the term “Bidenomics” - likely because they’re getting the memo that people aren’t buying what they’re selling.
The growing disapproval of Israeli actions in Gaza is growing in volume in traditionally pro-Israel sectors, which is appearing to feed Hamas’ confidence as it recognizes Israel’s growing isolation.
The falling church attendance across America seems to be unevenly distributed and will likely become a significant Trump campaign plank as a means of shoring up evangelical support.
President Biden’s flip flopping on using “illegal” terminology to describe undocumented migrants, even when they commit criminal acts, clearly puts Biden out of step with Hispanic voters on immigration policy when he’s already out of step with them when it comes to economic policy. No wonder the Democrats are losing Hispanic voters.
Bottom line: Don’t just pay attention to polls. Consider what polls might be telling us about unfolding events and trends. Connect the dots between polls and policy debates to gain insight into the direction of those debates.
“By the dawn’s early light,” indeed…
Well, there were no “rockets red glare,” but there was certainly an SOS in Baltimore harbor this week. A cargo ship lost power, then crashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge, collapsing a long stretch of the critical thoroughfare. The collision happened in the early hours of the morning and the SOS ensured that what few cars were on the bridge had time to get off, but several maintenance workers on the bridge died in the collision.
Aside from the human tragedy, the damage done to the bridge effectively closed the busy port of Baltimore, which will have major ripple effects on the local, regional, and national economies.
Baltimore’s port is one of the busiest ports on the East Coast, especially for automotive exports, which is another hit the blue collar Rust Belt can ill afford.
Politically, failure to clear the wreckage and get Baltimore back to work will be a black mark on President Biden’s already tattered economic record, especially if the Rust Belt’s working class voters feel the pinch.
Called it! The “Evil League of Evil” is now a thing
Readers of the Brief will recall that I’ve been regularly commenting on the increasing levels of cooperation and coordination between what I’ve been referring to as the “Evil League of Evil”: the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis and their affiliated groups of baddies (terrorists, drug cartels, etc.).
Turns out, the US national security community has been watching this trend as well and have resurrected the much ballyhooed “Axis of Evil” terminology from the Bush II years… ahhhhh, nostalgia!
Suffice to say, my term is better, but the more important thing to note is that the American foreign policy community is increasingly seeing these countries as a group rather than individual threats, which will likely shape American foreign policy and grand strategy over the next few years. It appears to already be changing rhetoric.
Circle backs
Some good news in Africa as 300 kidnapped Nigerian children were rescued and are being reunited with their families.
After a punishing first quarter, the Boeing CEO is stepping down at the end of the year as the aircraft giant starts a major reorganization.
After all the excitement (or dread) surrounding the rise of Javier Millei to the Presidency in Argentina, his first 100 days in office have (so far) not led to the dramatic changes many anticipated.
Field notes
Medical researchers appear to be closing in on a cure for HIV/AIDS.
The Supreme Court is staying busy in 2024. Stay tuned for rulings on access to abortion pills and the fate of January 6 protesters still in federal custody.
There’s a developing chocolate price spike as instability in Africa jeopardize cocoa supply chains.
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