March 18: Biden’s battle at the pump

In which, diplomacy on the Ukraine war shifts into high gear, gas prices shifts into higher gear, and Covid quietly idles.

Russia’s foundering battle plan

One month in, and the all too common “this will be a quick war” sentiment that marks the beginning of a conflict has been once again exposed for the lie it is. War is hell, plain and simple, and Ukraine is no exception. While Russian forces are making gains along several lines of advance in Ukraine, those gains are coming much slower than Russia appears to have expected or planned for, and they’ve come at a heavy cost. 

While the Ukrainian forces remain outnumbered and outgunned, they’ve demonstrated an incredible adaptability to the fight, played to strengths, and (so far) appear to have deployed Western-supplied armaments with devastating effect.

Though the fight clearly hasn’t gone the way Russia hoped for, the incremental advances at the front coupled with the near universal opposition (see below) to Russia’s attack seems to encourage a doubling down as Russia is reported to be repositioning its forces and sending reinforcements, including amphibious forces. The latter are coming from the Pacific, which will take a few weeks at least, so Russia is clearly planning for a larger, longer conflict. They’re not going anywhere.

The diplomacy game in Ukraine

With the war in Ukraine approaching its four-week mark and the Russian attack struggling to maintain forward momentum, a certain urgency has seized the diplomatic front. Ukrainian President Zelensky has embarked (virtually) on a tour of Western capitals, including an address to Congress, where he has alternately cajoled and shamed Western governments for their parsimonious support of Ukraine and urged further action against Russia.

Notably, in the American policy space, talk of a possible no-fly zone has ticked back up. President Biden is holding the line against direct military engagement in NATO, but Zelensky’s appeal to Congress may have done an end run around Biden. At the very least, it got Ukraine yet more military aid.

Meanwhile, talks between Russia and Ukraine alternate between hopes of a ceasefire that seem to fall apart with each fresh allegation of Russian atrocities in Ukraine. Globally, Putin is becoming increasingly isolated as the talk of crimes against humanity and war crimes is now a regular part of dialog in international organizations watching the war.

Russia has pushed back against Western animosity with as yet baseless threats to pay Russia’s debts in the now worthless ruble, or to threaten a broader conflict should Western powers intervene any further.

In Russia, Putin seems to be losing control of his media apparatus as journalists are resigning their posts in protest of the war. 

Bottom line, things aren’t going well for Putin on any front. Putin is a student of history, though, and knows that many Russian victories have been snatched from the jaws of defeat in the past, and he might be hoping to pull off another such success. However, as world opinion consistently sides with Ukraine and Russian forces continue to struggle, that possibility seems to be rapidly dimming.