March 14: The return of ceasefire diplomacy

In which, ceasefire diplomacy is officially off and rolling on Ukraine, speculation on recession roils the markets, and violence rips through Syria.

Ceasefire diplomacy returns

The diplomacy surrounding American attempts to get a ceasefire in Ukraine continued to see surprising developments this week.

US and Ukrainian negotiators met in Riyadh and concluded a framework for a proposed 30-day ceasefire along the whole line of contact in Ukraine. Concluding the meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio bluntly noted that “the ball is in Russia’s court.” Would Putin accept?

That was the question of the week as American negotiators headed to Moscow. In the meantime, European leaders acted in the wisdom between the Riyadh and Moscow meetings to push for European forces on the ground in Ukraine, advocate for basing US nukes in Poland, and remind Moscow that the two largest military forces on the continued (Poland and Turkey) anchored the eastern and southern flanks of Russia.

Meanwhile, the Urkanians and Russians both stepped up drone and missile attacks on one another’s cities lest either get the idea that entering talks would be a sign of weakness.

Despite the face-saving tactics, Putin appears to have gotten the strategic message the US and Europe appear to be sending him because as of yesterday, Putin accepted, in principle, the ceasefire deal, but wanted (obviously) to work out some details.

Bottom line, we’ve got a viable ceasefire pathway here. The final form is yet to be decided, so there’s more to be discussed between the parties (much more), and don’t think for a moment that Russia and its Evil League of Evil counterparts aren’t planning how to leverage this.