March 11: Unleashing the dogs of war in Ukraine

In which, cooler heads struggle to prevail in the Russo-Ukrainian War, South Korea gets a new president, China plays it cool, and Biden’s economy is “roaring” with inflation.

Unleashing the dogs of war in Ukraine

The Russo-Ukrainian War is in its third week and it continues to be slow going for the Russians who are sustaining comparatively heavy losses, but appear to be adapting their strategy to urban siege warfare of the kind Russia has bloody experience with in Chechnya and Syria.

Like the first two weeks of the war, it’s been hard to verify events on the ground as it seems both sides are deploying misinformation on social media. Ukraine continues to enjoy the benefit of the doubt in the Western world, but President Zelensky’s increasingly high demands of the EU and NATO may soon dry up that well of goodwill.

The debate in the US appears to circle around the question of just how far to back Ukraine. The Biden administration and Congress has upped the ante in billions in new aid to Ukraine while moving to tighten sanctions with a ban on Russian trade, but appear steadfast in refusing to engage NATO forces directly.

So far, my analysis in the last couple of weeks seems to be holding steady: in Ukraine, the sides are digging in for a long, bloody fight, while stateside, President Biden is doing everything he can to pin as much of the blame for his woes as possible on Vladimir Putin.

I highly recommend that you listen to the War on the Rocks podcast’s coverage of the war. They’ve done two episodes with an expert on the Russian military and it's easily the most balanced analysis of the conflict I’ve seen yet. Combine that with the Institute for the Study of War’s daily updates and you’ll have about all you need to track this thing.

Meanwhile, minimize consumption of mainstream media of both left and right flavors as the American media and chattering class seemed to have reached a bipartisan moment of agreement (Russia bad, Ukraine good) and stupidity (I hope to unpack that in a soon to come podcast episode). 

What we still seem to be missing, here, is an offramp for Russia.

America’s tightrope economy

While war rips across Ukraine, and Europe scrambles to fend off Russian aggression, foreign policy matters in American public discourse in a way it hasn’t in some time. As noted above, the Biden administration appears content to milk the Ukraine war for positive vibes as much as possible, and polls indicate that a large majority of Americans are willing to shoulder the burden of sanctions. However, such “rally round the flag” effects can be short lived, especially if unforeseen consequences emerge, or the pain lasts too long. In the Biden administration’s case, a ban on importing oil from Russia may be momentarily popular, but spiking gas prices PLUS spiking inflation is hardly a long term winning strategy.

The American economy is walking a tightrope that will eventually tip over into stagflation (high inflation plus slow job growth) or recession (deflation with lost jobs). It seems as though the American economy is precariously balanced between the two with the Fed set to make decisions on interest rates, attempts being made to regulate cryptocurrency, and governors struggling to stay ahead of rising prices. 

Bottom line: Rosy pictures of economic dynamism from people like California Governor Gavin Newsom are disconnected from reality. None of this is sustainable. We’ve got rough economic waters ahead, folks.