March 10: Containment 2.0 - the China protocol

In which, a Cold War relic is back in vogue, President Biden breaks the bank, and political violence in America gets Washington’s attention.

Containment 2.0 - the China protocol

The United States has tried very, very, VERY hard to avoid the dreaded ‘C’ word when describing their China strategy, but after the events of this week it’s really hard to call the US strategy towards China anything other than containment.

Let’s first consider China’s response to America’s increasing pressure to dissuade Beijing from selling weapons to Russia. China’s response was clearly designed to be a shot across the bow of American diplomacy: Don’t try to contain us.

Is China just being touchy or is America actually moving to contain China? Well, the Netherlands joined the US in putting export controls in place to prevent chip tech from making its way to China and the Philippines have begun publicizing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. In the US, public opinion of China is hitting an all time high in hostility and that hostility may be turning to combativeness as commentators note China’s weakening economy and (possibly) weaker than believed military.

At least in the democratic world, hostility towards China is increasing and it's turning into meaningful policy action that is seeking to slow or stop China’s ascendancy. And that’s a signal China is not misinterpreting. Far from taking it lying down, China is pivoting towards carving out space for its diplomatic initiatives and influence. This week saw a notable diplomatic win for China in successfully brokering a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.