June 7: Elections update: Winds of change, but in what direction(s)?

In which, major elections wrap up and get underway across the globe, and we go back to the ceasefire carousel.

Elections update: Winds of change, but in what direction(s)?

Mexico

Mexico held elections this last week in the midst of an election season pockmarked by assassinations in down ballot races. The generally peaceful and clean presidential election saw the emergence of AMLO’s handpicked successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, as the country’s first female president. Sheinbaum is likely to continue most of AMLO’s policies and govern from the political left, so while the “first female president” thing is certainly an accomplishment, it may not mean much in terms of meaningful change either in Mexico or in relations with the US. The peso and trading markets certainly didn’t see much to be happy about.

South Africa

As anticipated in the South Africa elections, ANC maintained its parliamentary majority, but for the first time will be governing with coalition partners as it failed to secure a 50%+ majority. The historically low polling results for ANC suggests that South African politics are in flux and may very well see some interesting changes. It will also be an important test for democracy and its staying power in the country.

India

The “world’s largest democracy” wrapped up its month-long election with a similar result as South Africa: Narenda Modi’s BJP retained its majority and Modi his role of PM, but with reduced margins as the opposition made gains. So, while Modi and his brand of Hindu nationalism will continue for a third term in India, most observers see the results as a win for democracy in India, anticipating that Modi’s grander visions will be more difficult to achieve.

Europe

Elections across the continent are being held for the European parliament with many anticipating a strong showing from rightwing parties, many of which are skeptical of the EU and further European integration. In a blow to a key tenet of progressive political thinking in the West, youth voters in Belgium (voting for the first time) are polling to the right.

Iran

Elections to replace the recently deceased President of Iran are getting underway with several faces (new and familiar “friends”) to Western observers entering the race. While this election is unlikely to change the overall strategy or direction of the Islamic Republic, it should give a glimpse into the often opaque world of Iranian domestic politics and political rivalries.

It’s striking to me to see all these elections and their results, real and anticipated, side by side. On the one hand they indicate a degree of change as new personalities and parties come to power. On the other hand, the degree to which those new faces and parties are connected to existing persons and institutions of power suggest a certain continuity that, depending on the country, could be either comforting or frustrating. What none of these elections seem to indicate, thought, is any sudden changes, at least not as a direct result of the elections themselves.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: “Our ceasefire proposal…”