June 27: Bombs over, around, and under Iran

In which, Trump follows through on his Iran threats, legislation stalls in Congress, and New York City Democrats double down on their leftward march.

NOTE: Before we dive into the week’s news, this is just a public notice that next week’s newsletter will be a little different on account of it being the Fourth of July.

Bombs over, around, and under Iran

A mere 24-hours after last week’s newsletter had gone out noting that we were in “wait and see” territory on President Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, we bombed Iran.

And, no sooner had the chattering classes in America proclaimed a looming “forever war” of “regime change” the likes of which President Trump swore he wouldn’t get us into… we had a ceasefire.

And, no sooner had media outlets called into question the success of the raid at stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons development and agreed that the Middle East was less safe… Iran was indicating a return to negotiations with their earlier redlines decidedly relaxed.

And, no sooner had Democratic lawmakers proclaimed Trump’s deployment illegal and worthy of impeachment… Israel bowed to Trump’s ceasefire pressure, Europe was thanking the US, and NATO announced plans to raise members’ defense spending to 5% of GDP.

President Trump and his foreign policy team had every right to take a victory lap at NATO summit this week, as President Trump used the raid to not only get Iran back to the negotiation table in a more subdued state, but also leveraged the raid to send a pretty clear message to Vladimir Putin to make a Ukraine ceasefire work as well.

And, yes, China will certainly be taking notes of caution from this episode.

Like the Soleimani strike of 2020, Iran retaliated with a telegraphed strike on an American base in Qatar and Iraqi proxies made some noise in Iraq, but it was a face saving move on the part of the Ayatollah while his regime took the proffered off-ramp.

Trump further demonstrated a strong degree of control over Israel as the ceasefire took hold despite some last minute missile exchanges between Israel and Iran prompting a very candid riposte from the President.

No matter how you cut the cake on this one, President Trump and his team delivered a masterclass in diplomatic leadership, achieving immediate military objectives (without American casualties), then leveraging the achievement of those objectives into advancing diplomatic initiatives with NATO, Russia, Iran, and even the Palestinian Authority. The cherry on top is the masterful way the Trump administration used feints and deception to direct attention to B-2 bombers stationed in the Indian Ocean and a two-week decision window before launching bombers from Missouri on a two-day turnaround. That’s Sun Tzu-level strategy that will likely win grudging praise and caution in Beijing.

This isn’t to say it’s all smooth sailing for Trump’s foreign policy going forward, but rather to note that this is a win and the Trump team didn’t rest on their laurels. They used that win to get other wins. That’s what we should want from our President and foreign policy leaders.

Not about the effectiveness of the raid. We hit our targets, but did they do enough damage to “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear program? Well, yes and no. Israel had already done a good deal of heavy lifting to impede the nuclear program not just by hitting infrastructure, but by killing key personnel as well. The American raid was specifically designed to hit infrastructure like the subterranean Fordow facility with “bunker busting” bombs (see picture). An initial US intelligence assessment leaked to the media (fancy that?) suggesting that the raid may not have destroyed Fordow as completely as Trump initially indicated, however Israeli intelligence has assessed that the damage is quite extensive.

Bottom line, no one really knows. The picture will become clearer over the coming weeks, and Iran’s posture in coming back to the table will likely be very telling in terms of how shaken the nuclear program and the Iranian regime itself is post raid. What is clear, though, is that the nuclear program took a serious hit. The debate right now is a more subjective debate over just how serious.