June 16: Counteroffensive and counterpunches

In which, we assess Ukraine’s first week of counteroffensive, evaluate Europe’s emerging security environment, and probe the mysteries of global geoeconomics.

Hey Tim, now are you going to talk about the Trump indictment!?!?

Onwards!

Counteroffensive and counterpunches

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is off and going, but cautiously… very cautiously. Despite early/scattered reports of Ukrainian forces retaking some lost ground, the situation on the ground in Ukraine remains fluid and difficult to fully assess. 

While Ukraine may have made some early gains, those gains are still in front of the main Russian defensive line. Operational security requires a certain silence on the scope, objectives, and progress of the counteroffensive, but Russian military analyst Michael Kofman has noted that Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to be developing as a major strategic campaign as opposed to an isolated operation to turn back the Russians in a single sector, which means the timetable to achieve desired objectives is likely longer. Does that make this an all or nothing throw for Ukraine? Are Russia and Ukraine both gambling the farm on this summer’s action? Would an affirmative answer to those questions suggest we’re reaching the upper limits on Western support for Ukraine? Questions worth asking, but difficult to answer at this juncture. 

For now, we can say the fighting is brisk, the casualties heavy, and the combatants fully committed. The outcome is very much undecided.

On the economic front, US Senators are readying a bill to seize Russian assets for Ukrainian aid, while Putin prepares his own asset seizures move as a counter response.