July 1: Reversing Roe

In which, the Supreme Court continues dealing out precedent setting (and busting) decisions, NATO marches to Russia's border (figuratively speaking), and wow did I call it on Iranian diplomacy.

Called it once! Iranian diplomacy

Last week, I had noted that Iran was in a very big hurry to renew talks with the US on its nuclear program amid rumors that Israel and Saudi Arabia would be taking steps to normalize ties.

Events this week confirmed such panic in Tehran as Iran sought to reboot the talks in Qatar, got rebuffed by US diplomats (recognizing the desperate ploy, much to their credit), then reiterated their now very strong desire to get talks back up and rolling. 

Inside Iran, the whipsaw effect of the government’s position on nuclear talks created confusion for both the government and Iranian media as they sought to damage control inside their own house.

I’d imagine American diplomats are feeling rather pleased with themselves for getting Iran knocked back on its heels for once.

Called it twice! Biden’s narrow objectives in the Mid East

American diplomats shouldn’t gloat too much, however, as the Biden foreign policy in the broader Middle East still remains somewhat convoluted and unfocused (see the Turkey-Kurdish problem above).

As I noted in last week’s newsletter, Biden’s hand with regional allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, may be weaker than the US or Iran (for completely separate reasons) would like to see. Fresh evidence of that weak hand was supplied this week as the White House announced that Biden would not be pressing Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production during his upcoming visit there this month. Apparently, Emmanuel Macron had told Biden that increasing production was a no-go.

It seems that ties with Israel and a (long shot) Yemen ceasefire will be the focus of the trip, reflecting an awareness by the Biden administration that they have to narrow their goals and trim their expectations when it comes to regional diplomacy.

Called it thrice! Reversing Roe

OK, this one was easy. We largely knew Roe v. Wade would be getting overturned this month when the Alito draft opinion was leaked in May. What wasn’t known (and I scarcely dared to hope) was whether or not the final opinion would be the complete repudiation of Roe that the Alito draft suggested. Turns out it was. 

Readers will recall that at the time of the draft opinion leak, I raised concerns that the insurrectiony/implied violence rhetoric of Democratic leaders would encourage real violence. Not only did that happen with consistency as crisis pregnancy centers across the country were fire bombed over the last two months, but that violence continued in the week following the final Roe decision even as Democratic leaders doubled down on rhetoric that ranged from calling for protests to defying the Court’s decision (a particularly rich position to take when Democrats were convening the January 6 Committee at exactly the same kind).

Hey, Tim, how come you’re (still) not talking about the Jan. 6 Committee?