January 5: Fighting the Iranian hydra

In which, America rolls into action to deter Iranian aggression in the Middle East, Biden tests the campaign waters, and Ethiopia looks for (salt)water.

Fighting the Iranian hydra

As 2023 wound down, the war in Israel was heating up as more and more regional actors appeared to be getting into the fray. Behind all those regional actors (Iraqi militias trying to get at Israel, Yemeni Houthis hitting Red Sea shipping, etc.) stood Iran.

From the beginning of hostilities last fall, America has been unambiguous in its messaging to Iran that attempts to broaden the conflict would not be tolerated. To its credit, the Biden administration has largely followed through on that threat by taking action against the Houthis in the Red Sea and hitting the Iraqi militias. So much so, in fact, that when bombs went off in Iran this week, the Iranian government was quick to blame Israel and America before ISIS (ever the lover of regional chaos) stepped in to claim responsibility. 

The upside is that America is putting teeth on its deterrence rhetoric vis a vis Iran. The bad news is that in the asymmetric gray zone that Iran loves to play in, Tehran is a pretty slippery operator, so active deterrence is going to feel a lot like fighting the mythical hydra: stop the Houthis in the Red Sea and the Iraqi militias get feisty. Hit the Iraqi militias and Hezbollah will launch rockets. And round and round we go. This isn’t to say America shouldn’t be seeking to actively deter Iran. However, the limited strikes will have limited effects, which means the strike-counterstrike game we’re settling into is likely to be ongoing.