January 24: Trump takes the wheel
In which, The second Trump administration sets a blistering pace in its first week.
Yes, that title was inspired by Carrie Underwood.
Trump comes
Inauguration Day dawned bright and very, very, VERY cold this year, which had the salutary effect of moving the Inauguration ceremony indoors to the Capitol Rotunda. I say “salutary” because in a political moment where the shell shocked opposition are terrified of the executive power they often laud and celebrate when they hold the Oval Office, and the incoming administration is dominated by the personality of the man who leads it, the majesty of the Rotunda and history it both housed and symbolized succeeded in overwhelming the partisan politics of moment. It was a powerful reminder of the enduring strength or our constitutional system provided an appropriate backdrop to President Trump’s Second Inaugural Address.
The speech, while displaying characteristic Trumpian hyperbole and populist appeal at different points, was also characterized by loftier rhetoric and a less pugnacious delivery suggesting that while Trump is still Trump, there’s also more respect for the office, the work, and the moment.
Additionally, the speech highlighted Trump’s more disciplined messaging by hewing closely to the GOP’s platform.
Ultimately, whether you voted for Trump or not, watched the ceremony or not, I can say be encouraged that this peaceful transfer of power not only went smoothly and beautifully. If you’d like to hear me dive deeper on the inauguration, check out my latest podcast with Scott Waller of Biola University.
Trump sees
While there were a couple of surprises in Trump’s Inaugural Address, Trump’s first week in office was hardly surprising. No sooner was the ceremony over when President Trump knuckled right down to work, signing hundreds of executive orders, pardoning January 6 protesters and others, getting critical cabinet posts filled, and declassifying those Kennedy and King files.
In other words, Trump immediately started making good on promises that he had made routinely on the campaign trail, in the GOP platform, and in his inauguration speech. Like I noted above, this is a more disciplined, on message Trump.
Of course, these executive orders, pardons, and appointments were all the low hanging fruit and I’m sure Trump’s opposition both within and without his party, are biding their time during this honeymoon phase. Trump’s team still needs to demonstrate that they can govern and that means, primarily, getting legislation over the finish line, and also getting warring parties around the world to the negotiating table.
Trump conquers?
This is where we enter the realm of speculation. It’s far too early to gauge even the likelihood of long term success and there are many, many contingencies that Trump doesn’t even have control over. For example, sure the prospect of his presidency and his threats helped get a ceasefire in Gaza through, but that’s not a guarantee the fighting doesn’t flare back up again after the 42 days of ceasefire expire. Yes, it looks like Putin is ready to come to the table on Ukraine, but that’s not going to be an easy deal to make.
In at least one area, though, the Trump administration has an early opportunity to demonstrate its ability to shape America’s geostrategic posture, and that’s in the Western Hemisphere that has emerged as the main foreign policy focus of the administration as it looks to secure the border with Mexico, keep China out of the Panama Canal Zone, and take the fight to the Mexican drug cartels… and, of course, there’s Greenland.
Conservative foreign policy minds have long advocated for a return to foreign policy more reminiscent of John Quincy Adams and the Monroe Doctrine, and in the early going, it sure looks like the Trump administration is positioning itself for exactly that kind of pivot while detractors are jumping on Trump’s allusions to William McKinley to declare a new age of American imperialism. I hope Haiti may be a beneficiary of America’s renewed interest in the Gulf of… America? Is that what we’re calling now?
Circle backs
While most of the world’s media attention was on the US and Trump, heavy fighting is rocking the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and the military juntas of the Sahel are forming a joint military force.
Ceasefire in Gaza may not be the only Mid East benefit of the return of Trump. Turkey and the Syrian Kurds may be close to a deal.
After speculation as to whether or not the new Syrian government would continue to host Russian naval assets at Tartous, the Syrian government answered in the negative, and Russia looks set to take it’s business to General Haftar’s side of Libya.
There’s also a ceasefire in at least one corner of Myanmar.
Field notes
It wasn’t just the Mexican drug cartels that got designated FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organization). Yemen’s Iran-sponsored Houthi rebels also got added to the list.