January 19: Wars and rumors of wars

In which, we take a global tour of the planet’s hot spots, breakdown the first GOP primary, and connect some disturbing dots (no conspiracy, though, bro).

Wars and rumors of wars…

I could’ve broken this out into smaller segments, but this newsletter is more than just news review and reportage, it’s trying to help you make sense of the world. In keeping with that objective, I thought it better to actually group the war reporting together because I think it reveals something. The conflicts I’m looking at are Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Hamas, the Houthis-Everybody, and… checks notes…. Iran-Pakistan.

Let’s start with the one you didn’t hear about. Over the last couple of weeks, Iran has claimed to be disrupting militant networks in neighboring Iraq and Pakistan, launching missile strikes into both countries. Pakistan, unlike Iraq, took more than umbrage at the move and returned the favor as both countries have militant problems in the border-straddling Balochistan region. The week ends with the countries trading missile volleys in a tit-for-tat exchange.

Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, the US engaged in another round of strikes on Houthi strongholds and reinstated the Houthis on the US list of terrorist groups. Even as the fighting in the Red Sea adversely impacts international trade flows, the Houthis show no signs of quitting, and the Yemeni government (remember, the Houthis are a rebel group within Yemen) even went so far as inviting an international ground force to end the Houthi problem.

Moving north, the diplomacy track in the Israel-Hamas conflict appears to have run firmly aground on the issue of post-war Gaza. The US has advanced some kind of reheated two-state solution plan that Saudi Arabia has coupled with a ceasefire requirement as preconditions for getting normalization talks back on track with Israel. In the latest example of the limited leverage the US has on Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu made himself abundantly clear (again) that a two-state solution is off the table so long as Hamas is in a position of power, which means there’s no ceasefire coming anytime soon either.

Some kind of ceasefire appeared to have a glimmer of hope in Ukraine as Russia made (less than honest) overtures and Ukraine appeared willing to set up a meeting in Switzerland. However, Russia quickly set some non-starter preconditions, which ensures these talks aren’t going anywhere fast. And why should they? As Russia goes on the offensive and builds a munitions advantage, Putin is in no mood to make concessions.

So, how does all this fit together… oh, wait, North Korea tested another new missile in the midst of a military buildup and threatening rhetoric that has even experienced observers worried Kim Jong Un is looking for a fight.

This little overview of world conflict doesn’t even mention Myanmar and the brewing crisis over the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal.

OK, so now what does all that mean?

At this point, it should be clear that a lot of the authoritarian regimes opposed to the US-led international system are perceiving an opportunity to express their displeasure and disruptive capacities, and are doing so. There’s some evidence of coordination between these countries, but not necessarily evidence of some kind of grand strategy. It’s enough that the US is distracted with too many fires to fight while Europe struggles to get its act together, so bad actors are looking to lock in some early gains.

That being said, the US and Europe appear to be adapting to the new realities. As the preeminent naval power (the US) pivots to focus on keeping the freedom of the seas open in the Red Sea, France is moving forward to lead the procurement effort to refill Ukraine’s munitions stocks. That’s not to say America is leaving Ukraine behind, but it does appear as though the US and its allies are starting to reassess priorities and leadership burdens. I think that’s why Kim Jong Un will be in for a shock if tries any funny business on the Korean peninsula, and it’s been…