January 17: Greenland’s Texas moment?

In which, the Trump administration takes shape, we get a Gaza ceasefire (kinda), and I speculate on whether or not Greenland is about to have a “Texas moment”.

Greenland’s Texas moment?

Whither Greenland? That’s the question on everyone’s mind as incoming President Trump and even House Republicans doubled down on the idea of adding Greenland to the American fold.

Many in the US have panned the possibility of the deal as the ludicrous pipe dream of an egomaniacal individual intent on taking a page out of Putin’s playbook.

More serious minds, however, recognize the strategic imperative behind Trump’s interest in Greenland and are more interested in discussing the ways the same strategic objectives could be achieved while still leaving Greenland under Danish sovereignty. Indeed, the Danish government was quick to publicly reject the possibility of selling Greenland… but then did a joint statement with the Prime Minister of Greenland (which does have self rule) where both appeared to agree that the time for Greenland’s independence is drawing nigh.

This got me thinking: Given Denmark’s resistance to a deal with Trump, could we see Greenland pull a Texas? In 1835, Texas was part of Mexico, but the following year declared its independence. Nine years later, Texas joined the US as the 28th state.

Given Denmark’s very small population (57,000) relative to its size, independence seems like a dangerous proposition in the increasingly dangerous Arctic region. The presence of the US military and Denmark’s membership in NATO do much to deter aggressor nations like Russia and China from making claims against the resource rich island, but that hasn’t stopped them from trying. In other words, Greenland needs a great power sponsor, the only question is which one would Greenlanders prefer? Some of the theatrics around the visit of Donald Trump Jr. to Greenland suggest that a campaign to shift popular opinion towards the US is already under way.

So, here’s my thought bubble: If Denmark is unwilling to entertain a purchase deal with the US (something they have done in the past), then an autonomous Greenland could declare independence and then ask to join the US. Greenland could pull a Texas. I actually would rate this a medium probability scenario. Denmark doesn’t have a lot of leverage here while the US has both strategic and political considerations that make a deal attractive. Meanwhile, Greenland has its own reasons (strategic, economic, political, geographic) to prefer the US such that I don’t think it would take much to persuade a majority in that direction.