February 28: The wild week in Ukraine diplomacy

In which, belligerents and would-be peacemakers set the table for peace negotiations, German elections upend the EU status quo, and the battle for the federal bureaucracy has a strangely absent party.

The wild week in Ukraine diplomacy

Last week, it seemed people weren’t entirely sure where things were going on Trump’s Ukraine diplomacy. Fellow Substacker, Michael McFaul even started keeping a running list of “US concessions offered to Putin,” and the comparisons to the Munich conference of 1938 were flying thick and fast. In the European and American press, it generally seemed like disaster was in the offing.

And yet, as I indicated last week, progress appeared to be made along several fronts, and that progress was on display in Washington this week.

President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer both took turns coming to town to discuss Ukraine with President Trump, and both came out saying “peace is possible.” US and Ukrainian negotiators made progress on a minerals deal that President Zelensky is in town to sign today despite the accusatory rhetoric Zelensky and Trump have leveled at each other….. and appear to continue to do.

While the deal is as opaque as ever on any future security guarantees for Ukraine, there seems to be parallel efforts to hold out the choice to Russia between a neutral Ukraine or one that’s armed to the teeth.

There’s a lot of moving parts and interested parties in ending this conflict, and much of the discussion on terms and non-negotiables is happening behind closed doors. That being said, I would still say we’re in “table setting” mode right now as involved parties start working towards those ranked preferences that are the hallmark of rational decision making theories. This phase is about floating possibilities, gathering information, and getting early commitments.

Bottom line, I would venture a guess that we’re looking at a very serious effort to get this deal done and end the bloodshed.

War on the Rocks just posted a roundtable discussion on this confusing swirl of events and conflicting comments, which provides deeper context on all this. Highly recommend it.

P.S. stay tuned on my Substack “Notes”. I fully intend to address that McFaul silliness on “concessions” later today.