February 25: War in Ukraine
In which, we review the week Europe’s “Long Peace” ended
What else was this going to be but an all-Ukraine Weekly Brief? Friends, the last week has been nuts. US-Russia diplomacy was the focus of last month’s Deep File, and there have been regular updates in the newsletters this month, but this thing (as many anticipated) turned bad very quickly. We started this week with tensions high, we’re ending the week with a major interstate war on the European continent for the first time since World War II.
I’ll break down the events of the week day by day, then offer some thoughts as to where this thing may be headed.
Monday, February 21
The week started with the Biden administration maintaining its tempo of publicizing intelligence reports (more on that below) on Russian movements in a bid to give Putin pause, but Biden said himself last week: He believes Putin’s had already decided to invade. Putin gave the world no reason to doubt that assessment when he recognized the independence of two break away regions in the Donbas region, and swiftly moved Russian troops within range of the 2014 “contact line” that separated the Russian-backed separatists from Ukrainian forces.
Almost immediately, Russia claimed that it had killed and/or captured Ukrainian soldiers that had crossed the contact line into what Russia now recognizes as a sovereign state, but international law recognizes as the sovereign territory of Ukraine. This was Putin’s casus belli, and I noted to friends at that juncture that the invasion of Ukraine was starting.
Russia and its ally Belarus clarified the prisoner’s dilemma the opposing sides now found themselves in: Russian withdrawal would depend on a NATO pullback.
The global response to Putin’s actions was swift with a round of sanctions from the US and Europe and public condemnations.
Tuesday, February 22
Tuesday opened with Germany and the US halting further work on the previously approved Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and the international sanctions regime against Russia coming into force with European allies, Japan, and America all joining. NATO ally Turkey was notably muted in its response, but still rejected Russia’s recognition of the breakaway territories. However, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted, “We’re used to it.” He may just be bluffing, but many foreign policy experts have questioned the effectiveness of sanctions for this exact reason: Russia has already counted those costs. So now what?
Tuesday was the day of diplomacy in world capitals as governments scrambled to adapt to the new facts on the ground from Monday. Russia, for its part, calmly proceeded with closing up its embassy in Kyiv, evacuating civilians from the recently recognized Donbas regions, signing treaties of alliance and defense with them (and getting backing from its ally Syria), and recognizing their claims to more Ukrainian territory. War was on its way, and while some still believed Putin might hold back, no one doubted that these moves signaled a real challenge to the international system as Putin was essentially calling the bluff of United Nations and Western democracies to abide by their oft stated “R2P” (Responsibility to Protect) doctrine. Some of the more pessimistic observers noted that the crisis would undermine the United Nations charter and the rules-based international order itself. With such high stakes, what was America and Europe prepared to do?
Tuesday was the day of picking sides and establishing contingencies. I’m convinced that by the end of Tuesday, no one thought war was avoidable.
Wednesday, February 23
And the war came. Wednesday opened up with more talk about sanctions and how the sanctions could impact the American economy, but things took a drastic turn by Wednesday afternoon. Following up on their signed treaties from the before, separatist leaders in the Donbas formally invited the Russian military to assist in gaining control of additional disputed territory to which President Putin readily agreed.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian banks and government offices were hit by a wave of cyberattacks, something that I had noted to students a couple weeks ago would be a strong signal that military operations were about to commence.
Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky made a final appeal for peace before declaring a state of emergency, calling up reserves, and issuing arms to Ukrainian civilians. By the evening, Twitter was alight with reports of missile strikes, and ground and amphibious assaults on broad front extending from Odessa, around the eastern border of Ukraine and west to the outskirts of Kyiv.
On the diplomatic front, America condemned the attack, while China broke its silence to not quite take Russia’s side, but to criticize American diplomacy.
Thursday, February 24
In the first day of fighting, reports came in of gains and losses. First, Russia controlled a major airport outside Kyiv, then they didn’t. Next, there were reports of Russian shelling of hospitals, and hard fighting outside major cities all along the line of advance with the Russians capturing Chernobyl.
As the dust settled, it was clear that a full invasion was underway, but we were now in the fog of war, which means the facts on the ground will be moving much faster than even a 24-hour news cycle can keep up with.
The main concern for the US and its NATO allies by this time was containing the conflict both militarily and economically even as news that Russian troops began the march on Kyiv from Belarus, Belarus was also targeted with sanctions, and oil climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 (the last time Russia started a conflict with Ukraine). Perhaps fearing a similar widening of the war as Ukraine requested that Turkey close the Bosphorus Straits to Russian warships, Putin warned the world to stay out of the fight.
In Russia, war protests developed, but were quickly put down by police signaling a turn towards a more brutal dictatorship as Russians grow weary of sanctions and Putin’s disinformation in Russian media.
Iran joined Syria and China in blaming NATO and the US for the current state of affairs, but did not signal this would end ongoing nuclear talks.
Friday, February 25
Three days of fighting now, and even though the Ukrainian military is performing better than many anticipated and slowing the Russian advance, Russia keeps raising the stakes with Putin calling for full regime change in Kyiv. He wants a puppet government that will do Russia’s bidding, and troops are moving into position to accomplish exactly that. This is the clearest signal yet that Putin is “all in” on Ukraine.
What does Putin want?
Publicly, Putin has long decried the eastward creep of NATO as a threat to Russian security and territorial integrity, and the frequent flirting Western nations with Ukraine over the possibility of membership certainly played a roll here, and animates Russian public opinion. But just what does Putin want? Answers to that question are varied, but the basic contours of the conflict offer some clues.
Putin's attempting to
Take Kyiv to split the country in half.
Drive in from the east and up from Crimea.
Get back control of historic Novorossiya.
Going for Odessa and Kharkiv establishes the flanks of the Russian lines, and is attempting to outflank Ukrainian forces focused on the Crimea and Donbas regions. Those forces will need to retreat quickly lest they get enveloped.
This effectively cedes the southern and eastern regions of the country to Russia at the outset.
At minimum, I think Putin wants a land bridge to Crimea, the regaining of Novorossiya, permanent access to the Black Sea, and an Eastern European belt of buffer states on NATO's southern flank. Some extra agricultural input from the Russian Empire's former breadbasket wouldn't be bad either.
On American and NATO diplomacy
The week started with President Biden’s poll numbers steady and low, and I can’t imagine them improving as Americans witness the real time violence of the conflict. But, to be fair to the Biden administration, their hands are tied. Most Americans oppose military involvement in Ukraine, Ukraine is not a NATO member, and we have no security commitments to them.
While the fighting in Ukraine intensifies, it appears as though America and its European allies are doing everything they can to turn up the economic pressure on Russia without driving Moscow straight into the open arms of Beijing. But sanctions may not be enough to fundamentally alter Putin’s behavior.
For its part, NATO is, contrary to what some in America believe, doing exactly what it is designed to do and first moving to secure members on its eastern and southern flanks.
Whither China?
For its part, China is trying to keep a low profile and play the role of the mature adult in the room even as it lines up behind Russia. This is an untenable position for China, and they’ll soon need to either pick a side, or declare some kind of neutrality to avoid getting bit by secondary sanctions.
Following the conflict
I highly recommend you track developments with this useful Twitter feed (three words I rarely string together).
While you're reading, keep a map of Ukraine open since many of the cities of Ukraine are being mentioned and you need to know where they are.
Field notes
Elsewhere in the world, Ethiopia has switched on the turbines at the Nile dam, prompting an angry Egyptian reaction.
The ripple effects of inflation and high fuel costs are being felt in Morocco, where thousands are protesting the rising costs.