February 14: To Russia with love

In which, Trump flirts with a peace plan for Ukraine, the US and Europe court AI innovation, and we look at the merits of the case for a Constitutional crisis.

To Russia with love

The Munich Security Conference is happening this week, which usually means big policy announcements from world powers, and the Trump administration did not disappoint.

Just as the meet up was kicking off, the Trump administration announced that President Trump would be talking with President Putin about peace in Ukraine… whether the Ukrainians were in the room or not. While the Democrats in the US and European leaders panicked, the Trump team began deploying senior leaders to lay out the terms ahead of any meetings with the belligerents. Sec Def Hegseth took Ukrainian NATO membership and the restoration of Ukrainian borders off the table while Vice President Vance played the role of bad cop suggesting that any bad faith negotiations on Russia’s part could trigger the US putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

The hot takes are flying fast and furious. Today, VP Vance’s speech on the conference is causing waves for his critique of European leaders’ leadership failures.

What the heck is happening?

President Trump has been very clear on Ukraine: He wants the fighting to end. The problem is that neither Russia nor Ukraine want the fighting to end. So, the challenge for the Trump administration is to get two recalcitrant belligerents to the table. Because Russia is actually enjoying some battlefield success at the moment, that requires more be done to sweeten the deal for Russia, hence Hegseth’s comments. However, President Trump wants a peace deal to stick and that requires Russia to negotiate in good faith and stick to the agreement, hence Vance’s comments. Meantime, you have to get NATO and the EU behind you, which, at least in part, explains both Vance’s comments in Munich and Trump’s decision on reciprocal tariffs.

So, is the Trump administration throwing some love Russia’s way? Well, yes, but only to the extent that it gets Russia to the table not because of some Trump-Putin bromance. If it were the latter case, I don’t think Zelensky would be moving towards the table.