December 9: Two (three, sir), three strikes forward, one step back with Russia

In which, America and France jockey for influence with Russia, Ukraine just keeps blasting, Elon Musk hangs out Twitter’s dirty laundry, and authoritarians deploy carrots and sticks to quell protests.

Two (three, sir), three strikes forward, one step back with Russia

Last week, I noted that French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to be having a frustrating state visit with President Biden. Generally, when America and France don’t see eye to eye, France starts getting vocal about those disagreements.

True to form, even as President Biden was finalizing the details of transferring armaments to Poland (to be tough on Russia) and orchestrating a prisoner exchange with Russia (to calm his own base), Macron decided to throw a curveball/hand grenade into the mix by arguing that NATO/America needed to consider Russia demands for security guarantees as a prerequisite to ceasefire talks.

While America and Russia traded verbal broadsides on who was doing more to inhibit a diplomatic off-ramp for the war, Ukraine and Russia continued exchanging literal broadsides on the battlefield. In an apparent response to Russia’s continued pounding of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine launched multiple strikes deeper into Russian territory, hitting three Russian airfields and causing significant damage. In an effort to ease pressure on Russian forces and possibly to target drone launch sites, Russia appears to have shifted its missile barrages back towards targeting military installations, but I doubt Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure has been fully spared.

Biden’s foreign policy stumbles towards 2023

It’s not a good mark for the President's diplomacy and foreign policy efforts when the main story of the week is a prisoner exchange with Russia that sees America trading a known arms dealer and war criminal for a professional athlete (while leaving American service members continuing to languish in Russian prisons, mind you).

Additionally, to cap off a year of frustration in US-Saudi relations, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed up in Riyadh to glad hand and sign deals with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. 

In Israel, the emerging Netanyahu government appears set to include members of the Ultra-Orthodox parties in governing the West Bank, a surefire indicator that things won’t be calming down there.

To sum up: President “diplomacy is back, alliances are back” Biden is ending 2022 having alienated one key Middle Eastern ally (Saudi Arabia) and on a collision course with another (Israel). And while US and European interests are converging in relationship to China, Russia appears set to become a wedge issue if France has anything to do with it. Meanwhile, another partner in balancing China - India - is demonstrating a stubborn resistance to American diplomacy in its insistence in buying Russian oil. In short, American diplomacy does not have much to show in terms of wins at the end of 2022.

China: troubles at home, challenges abroad

The one consolation to Biden’s diplomatic woes is that Xi Jinping isn’t faring much better. Though his trip to the Middle East is certainly coming off as more successful than Biden’s trip earlier this year, Xi is beset by domestic turmoil.