December 20: Reintegrating Syria, recalibrating Mid East relations

In which, nations rush to reintroduce themselves to Syria, Mid East powers try to stave off power grabs in Syria, Trump picks an early budget battle, and the end of year economy looks… interesting.

Reintegrating Syria, recalibrating Mid East relations

With Bashar al-Assad “safely” out of the way in Moscow, the competing regional interests got down to business this week inside and outside Syria.

Inside Syria, the new government is at least talking the talk of moderation and tolerance (we’ll see about walking the talk later) while European and Middle Eastern countries alike are reopening embassies in Damascus, and the UN is working to get sanctions removed to speed the delivery of economic and humanitarian aid back into the country. US diplomats are on the ground in Damascus to meet with HTS representatives as well. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Syrians who fled the civil war are making plans to return, which would be a huge help in the rebuilding… provided there are places for them to live and jobs to come back to. The shared years of oppression, war, and displacement appear to form the core of the emerging national identity, but will regional dynamics allow the new Syria to rise? Hard to say.

In Egypt, this week, President Sisi hosted first the President of Iran, then the President of Turkey creating a fascinating visual of Persian, Turkish, and Arab powers seeking to apparently come to some kind of agreement on the status of Syria. Notably, Israel was left out of this diplomatic troika, but I’m sure Israel and the situation in Gaza was part of the discussion.

Israel has spent the week redeploying IDF elements from Lebanon, digging in on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, and hitting Houthi bases in Yemen. With Iran clearly on its back foot and its proxies in disarray (despite Tehran’s protestations to the contrary), Israel continues to work at degrading Iran’s proxy network while extending various security buffers.

The big surprise in Gaza was that Hamas appears to be advancing a ceasefire deal now. At some level that makes sense. With Hezbollah even temporarily out of the fight and overland supply routes to Iran severely compromised in both Lebanon and Syria, Hamas just doesn’t have the allied support it had even three months ago. 2025 is going to be a very interesting year in the Middle East.