December 2: Mr. Macron goes to Washington

In which, Chinese people appear to be done with Covid restrictions, Mr. Macron and Mr. Biden exchange niceties, and those pesky recession lights keep blinking red.

Mr. Macron goes to Washington

French President Emmanuel Macron was in Washington this week on a state visit to address trade and security concerns with President Biden.

The US-France relationship is one of the more interesting relationships in America’s alliance network due to both countries laying claim to being among the oldest/more mature liberal democracies. And both countries try to use that standing to influence/irritate one another. 

This trip appeared to be no exception to the rule as both leaders took turns both praising one anothers leadership and chiding the other for not doing enough on either trade or European security.

The trip seemed to end on a mostly positive note of agreement in terms of continuing to back the fight in Ukraine, but it didn’t erase major divides between America and its European allies on trade, particularly the negative effects of one of Biden’s signature pieces of legislation.

Battle lines harden and off-ramps close in Ukraine

Speaking of closing ranks on Ukraine, Presidents Biden and Macron laid out what appeared to be a pretty clear precondition for peace talks on Ukraine: Russia needs to pull out entirely. Whether or not a Republican controlled House will allow Biden to see the war through to that point remains to be seen, but what is clear is that Ukrainian diplomacy has successfully aligned US and apparently EU diplomacy (at least publicly) with Kyiv’s policy objective of total victory.

Russia’s response was quick, predictable and equally terse: Recognizing Russian annexations of Ukrainian territory as a precondition for peace talks.

With such non-starter, dead on arrival demands on the table the major off-ramps to the war are now closed, which suggests that fighting in Ukraine will remain protracted and bloody through the winter.

Major questions now are centered on whether or not Russia’s “partial mobilization” can deliver “results” either in terms of holding what remains of gains in the Donbas or in recapturing lost ground; whether Ukrainian forces can sustain losses (we still don’t have a clear picture on these); and whether Putin’s health will beat him before the Ukrainians.

Zero tolerance for ‘Zero Covid’ in China

The last couple of weeks have seen a truly surprising turn of events in China. Fresh off a successful Congress and diplomatic meeting with President Biden, President Xi Jinping appears to have been beset by a major domestic crisis: anti-zero Covid demonstrations.