December 15: The US turns on Israel

In which, the divides over Israel deepen in the US driving divides in US-Israeli relations, COP28 wraps with little to show, and, boy, did I call it…

The US turns on Israel

As anticipated, the US vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, but the move generated a strong backlash as the UN General Assembly immediately passed its own resolution demanding a ceasefire, Middle Eastern governments called for a global strike in support of Palestinians, and the Democratic Party’s divide on Israel continued to deepen. The public diplomacy battle is clearly going in Hamas’ favor, even prompting Jordan’s foreign minister to claim Israel has suffered a strategic defeat.

Israel has steadfastly refused to countenance any ceasefire (even as it works to get more aid into Gaza) as the IDF believes it's got Hamas on the ropes, but the clamor for a ceasefire is really starting to bother the Biden administration. Both President Biden and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan are in Benjamin Netanyahu’s ear more or less repeating the line about strategic defeat and the need for a ceasefire. Historically, in these situations, Israel has bristled at American demands and this time was no different. So, we can anticipate some pretty choppy waters ahead for US-Israeli relations going into 2024.

Called it! As Hamas falls, the Hezbollah threat rises

At the outset of the war in Gaza, I noted that Hezbollah would likely keep its powder dry in order to come to Hamas’ rescue if things started going badly. Looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. As the IDF pounds away at Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli government rejects calls for any kind of unilateral ceasefire, Hezbollah has been increasing its bombardments on Israel’s border with Lebanon leading many to anticipate a more general opening of hostilities in the near future on the northern front.