December 13: The fall of Assad and the future of Syria

In which, Syria drops its dictator for no one quite knows what exactly, America’s left wing falls in love with an assassin, and we start turning the page on 2024.

The fall of Assad and the future of Syria

How fast can dictatorships fall? Decades and then days, it turns out. Last week, it looked as thought the half-century rule of Syria by the Assad family was under threat as a rebel alliance launched a major offensive. But, by the weekend, what looked like a dictatorship under threat became a dictatorship defeated.

After holding onto power for over a decade in the face of a brutal civil war, the equally brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad came crashing down. This week, the story in Syria was about trying to sort out that “what now?” question, so I’ll run through the many actors to provide you with a quick assessment.

Syrians: The Syrian people are quite a diverse ethnic and religious group, and though rejoicing in the departure of Assad, Druze, Christian, and Kurdish minorities are all concerned about what comes next given that its Sunni Islamists who are now in charge. As brutal as the Assad regime was, its secular Baathist ideology ensured a measure of protection for minorities. For now, the provisional government appears to be allaying minority concerns, but we’ll see how this develops. Hopefully the shared suffering under Assad coupled with the shared joy of his departure can prove to be unifying elements for the new Syria.

Russia and Iran: Easily the two of the biggest losers in this turn of events. Both Russia and Iran had spent years propping up the Assad regime, Iran to maintain an overland route to Hezbollah; Russia to maintain access to the port of Tartus in order to maintain a naval presence in the Mediterranean, and air bases to access operations in Africa. Now, both find these valuable assets under threat. Russia is already attempting to maintain some kind of access to its bases in Syria, but Iran may have a harder time reaching an accommodation, if any, with the provisional government in Syria.

Turkey: As a major backer of the victorious HTS rebel group and its highly visible leader Joloni, Turkey stands to gain the most from this victory. Indeed, Turkey-backed groups instantly pivoted this week to attacking US-backed Kurds in eastern Syria.

The US: Both President Biden and President-elect Trump are speaking and acting very cautiously here with Trump saying America should stay out of this and the Biden administration appearing to tacitly recognize the new government. However, all this caution has once again led to tensions with America’s Kurdish friends.

Israel: Israel might not be top of mind to many outside observers as being interested in what’s happening in Syria given ongoing fighting in Gaza, but Syria does share a land border with Israel and is technically still in a state of war having never recognized Israel nor signed a peace treaty after the wars of the 20th century. Israel thus responded to the events of the week by ensuring that whoever fills the Syrian power vacuum will not have access to the Syrian air force, the commanding heights of Mount Hermon, or get any ideas about retaking the Golan Heights. Having taken control of the eastern portion of the Golan Heights and the Druze villages in the area, Israel appears to be making plans to stay in those positions through the winter. Israel also has its eyes on continuing to degrade Iran’s proxy network and force projection capabilities, so expect Israel to be active in Syria to deny Iran that land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Things are still very much in flux in Syria and will continue to be into 2025. But other dictatorships fell this year as well. In places like Bangladesh, the transition to freer societies appears to be gaining ground so there may be reason to hope for Syria as well.