December 1: Hostage diplomacy

In which, a week of calm in Gaza comes to an end, COP28 gets under way in Dubai, and the economy is looking good until it's not.

Hostage diplomacy

The last week had been one of calm on the Gaza front as Israel and Hamas worked out a Qatar-brokered ceasefire that first started as four days and was extended up to today. The ceasefire appears to have fallen apart after a Hamas attack in Jerusalem that left three dead and several more injured. The ceasefire deal held longer than expected, though, as hostages got exchanged, aid flowed into Gaza, and the belligerents considered their next steps.

The Israeli/foreign-nationals-hostages-for-Paestinian-prisoners deal started with three Palestinian prisoners for one hostage ratio, but Hamas attempted to raise the stakes to an “all for all” deal, which would have vastly increased that exchange ratio. That idea quickly got scuttled as the ceasefire got extended, but the gambit indicates that Hamas is clearly very aware of the value of its hostages and is working overtime to get the most they can out of the deal before the inevitable resumption of hostilities. Given the renewal of fighting, it would appear that Israel got wise.

Hamas isn’t the only entity trying to wring further concessions from Israel. American diplomats continue to pressure Israel to be the guarantor of civilian safety in Gaza, asking for the establishment of safe zones in southern Gaza. Such safe zones may be contingent for Israel to receive continued American aid as political pressure ramps up on President Biden within his own party to take a harder line with Israel.

For Israel, the hostage exchanges are a partial achievement of Israel’s main objective, but the steep price being paid for the hostages raises the issue of whether of not Israel will imperil its secondary objective, the destruction of Hamsa, by giving the group breathing space to regroup even as Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels, and other Iranian proxies keep up the pressure on Israel (and the US) on other fronts. One wonders what Henry Kissinger would do?

Henry Kissinger phones in the century

Unfortunately, America’s godfather of diplomacy and geopolitical strategy passed away this week at the ripe old age of 100.