August 5: An entirely too early prediction…for 2024

In which, Biden gets some short yardage, but recession talk and tough choices on the geopolitical front threaten to eat into the gains.

A recession by any other name…

If we’re not in a recession, and if that fact is as objectively clear as the Biden administration says it is, then why are still spilling ink on this question?

• It’s because tried and true definitions don’t go quietly into the night.

• It’s because even with a favorable jobs report, key drivers of the American economy continue to fall or show very mixed results.

• It’s because China continues to experience economic headwinds, Britain is facing a deep recession along with other major European economies.

• It’s because people who make a living watching economic data more closely than polling data are unconvinced by the rhetorical gymnastics the Biden administration is engaged in.

• It’s because even the Democrats can’t agree internally on the question of recession.

OK, maybe we’re not in a bad recession, but we’re in a recession. The mark of a healthy economy is not just more jobs, but productive jobs, jobs that increase earnings and purchasing power. Those we aren’t getting, and people know it.

Biden gets his win(s)?

I mentioned last week that Biden and the Democrats came out swinging on the legislative and election fronts.

They enter the month of August having racked up some significant wins. The Green New Deal… ahem… I mean, the Inflation Reduction Act appears to be set to win through this weekend on a party line vote thanks to last minute wheeling and dealing that got Senators Manchin and Sinema on board.

The Act, which (in part) apparently reduces inflation by increasing taxes and the IRS workforce, gets Biden a legislative win on the environmental front, which will likely assuage his base, at least through November. Buoyed by the July jobs report, the Biden administration can at least make the “we’re not in a recession” argument to justify the tax increase in the short term. Indeed, the impact of any taxes won’t happen until next April anyway.

On the foreign policy front, Biden (like Trump and Obama before him) was able to burnish his national security credentials by offing a terrorist leader. Ayman al-Zawahiri has long eluded American missiles, but the Al Qaeda leader got his comeuppance shortly after reports surfaced that he was alive. The awkward part? He was taken out by a drone strike in Kabul, apparently living fairly openly and with the Taliban’s blessing. Not a great way to celebrate the one year anniversary of America’s Afghanistan withdrawal.

An entirely too early election prediction…. For 2024.

The favorable outcome in the Kansas abortion referendum, the success of Democrats backing Trump-favored candidates in GOP primaries, and the movement on legislation (Biden’s ongoing Covid problems notwithstanding) has gotten some election watchers wondering if the midterms won’t be that bad for the Democrats?

It’s a cautious optimism, and one that still presumes losses in the House, but nonetheless Democrats seem to be getting their mojo back just in time for election season… or so political journalists would largely have you think.