August 30: Attrition and reposition in Ukraine
In which, Ukraine seeks an advantage in Russia, Iran seeks a rapprochement with America, and Democrats seek a fait accompli in battleground states.
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Ukraine: Attrition and reposition
As noted in last week’s newsletter, Ukraine’s limited offensive into Russia was likely to get a brutal Russian response. This week indicated just what that could look like.
Though a counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to be slow in taking shape (Michael Koffman at War on the Rocks has some good thoughts on why that might be), Russian gains in the Donbas continue and bombing of civilian areas reached new levels of intensity this week.
On the diplomacy front, Zelensky appears indeed to be wanting to use the offensive to get Russia to the negotiating table, but also appears to be needing more firepower to do that, which requires putting diplomatic pressure on America’s lame duck President and military pressure on Vladimir Putin. Well did Clausewitz say that war is “politics by other means.”
Iran plays the odds
Speaking of repositioning oneself, Iran’s Supreme Leader made some interesting, if hardly ingenuous, comments this week, suggesting that Tehran may be willing to reconsider heading back to the nuclear negotiation table with the US.
Whaaaaa????
If you listened to my most recent podcast with Joseph Epstein, this shouldn’t be that surprising. Joseph and I discussed how Hamas is militarily devastated at this point in the war and recent hits on Hamas leadership inside Iran has put Iran in a bind in its ability to respond to Israel. On top of that, the US sharing intel with Israel to preempt an impending Hezbollah strike last weekend not only further inhibits Iran’s proxy options, but also sends a clear signal that whatever daylight Hamas and Iran hoped to open up between Israel and the US has been superficial at best. Meanwhile, every hostage rescue and recovery diminishes Hamas’ bargaining power.
So, how do you get America to step back and pull Israel with them? If you’re Iran, you dangle the potential of a new nuclear deal. But this would only work with a Democratic administration, not a Republican one, especially not a Trump administration. So, I guess Tehran is making its 2024 preferences known.
Africa security update
News across the African continent paints a rather interesting picture this week. Though it's impossible to generalize a massive continent too much, it largely appears that despite the many ongoing (and brewing) conflicts, the involved nations would prefer to work things out themselves with a minimum of outside involvement.
Why do I say this?
If you look at the growing mpox outbreak, there seems to be a welcoming of WHO/UN help in getting vaccines into affected regions (slow and uneven, though, it’s been). However, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, UN peacekeepers are being pushed aside and out as fighting between rival groups reignites. So, a public health emergency? Please send help. Internal power politics? Don’t bother.
North and west of Congo, Nigeria and the military junta of Niger may be charting something of a new regional security architecture as they signed a joint security agreement to reign in jihadist militants despite the differences the two regimes have with one another. Part of me thinks this may have something to do with Russian influence, so it may not be entirely organic to the two countries.
This brings us to the escalating crisis in Libya where the central banks woes have led to closed oil refineries and the specter of renewed fighting. Interestingly, while European countries are generally concerned about any instability in North Africa and the Sahel, there hasn’t been a lot of very apparent movement on addressing the Libyan situation. This seems to be a hot potato that outsiders don’t want to get stuck with.
Ballot battles
Typically, when talking about battles at the ballot box, they’re talking about elections and the act of voting. Rarely do such euphemisms refer to what happens before ballots are even cast. And yet, legal challenges to just who will be on the ballot in key battleground states in the US have emerged as the latest front on the presidential election.
When third party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. announced an alliance with Donald Trump this week, Democrats immediately sued to keep Kennedy’s name on the ballot (after attempting to keep Cornel West off the same ballot) in the critical state of Michigan, but then lost an appeal to get the Green Party candidate off the ballot in Wisconsin.
In other words, Democrats are anticipating razor thin margins in these battleground states and are trying to keep candidates on who they think more likely to peel away Trump-leaning independents, while simultaneously attempting to keep left wing candidates off to ensure the political left in America only has one candidate to vote for.
What we’re seeing in real time is a well-oiled political machine in action using every (mostly) legal means it can to tilt the election in their favor from lawfare to information control. They’re even going back to the “throw a lawsuit at Trump” well. Kind of have to when your candidate isn’t really out there making her case…
Harris-Walz make their public (interview) debut… sort of
Until now, that is. The most hotly anticipated political interview event of the season is coming to you not quite live from CNN this week (last night, in fact). Amid growing pressure to sit down and actually do an interview with the media to discuss her vision and policy positions, the coy and/or cagey Kamala finally sat down for a tete-a-tete with CNN… but with VP candidate Tim Walz at her elbow. In the world of optics, this doesn’t look good. When the charge of being unable to articulate a coherent idea and/or argument is starting to gain traction, arranging a pre-recorded interview with your wingman there for backup isn’t going to help that perception change. It may even amplify it, especially ahead of a September 10 debate. This is something of a paradox in the world of PR politics where you need to appear approachable and authentic, but the high stakes of the situation prevent you from being honest and flawed. This tension appears to be boiling just beneath the surface of the “good vibes” of the Harris-Walz campaign, and more than illustrates my point.
Called it!
Americans increasingly are feeling undercut by inflation. The rate may be down, but the ongoing effects are not going to be gone by Election Day.
Circle backs
Biden’s repeat attempt at student loan forgiveness again got shot down by SCOTUS. I wonder if that’s actually the point? Get SCOTUS to make a lot of unpopular decisions so you can win the public opinion battle on adding more justices to the court (another major Biden wishlist item).
The restive Balochistan region between Iran and Pakistan has heated back up with militant violence.
France is still without a legislative branch in its government after its July elections as President Macron refused to name a left wing politician as Prime Minister. France is closer to a monarchy than it has ever been in the modern era.
The new government in Bangladesh is struggling to tamp down vigilante violence after the upheavals of the summer.
Kenyan police officers are having their own struggles in Haiti from late pay to operational challenges.
Field notes
Mozambique will be going to polls a month before the US. Updates in October.
China is set to limit exports of a critical mineral used in weapons manufacturing in the US and other countries. This is highly likely to negatively impact arms supply chains to Ukraine via Europe and the US.
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