August 20: Comprehending the Afghanistan Crisis
In which, we attempt to wrap our heads around events in Afghanistan.
OK, it was a full week, with a devastating earthquake in Haiti, snap elections being called in Canada, and ongoing protests against COVID restrictions. But nothing, and I mean nothing, has shook America more in the last two weeks than events in Afghanistan. In this special issue of the Weekly Brief, we’re doing an overview on what is happening in the “graveyard of empires,” and contemplating what lies ahead for America on the world stage.
What the heck just happened?
Last week, I had barely finished writing that Kabul was set to fall when Kabul did, in fact, fall. Taliban forces moved into the Afghanistan capital and solidified their gains, declaring victory and the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” by the end of this week.
The oncoming Taliban sent waves of people flooding onto the tarmacs of Kabul airport as US forces tried in vain to keep runways cleared. Reinforcements were rushed in before flights could be resumed, but the panicked search for seats on outbound flights continues.
The speed of the collapse of the Afghan government and security forces marks another tragic lapse in judgement by American leaders at every level as the President and other senior foreign policy officials routinely downplayed military and intelligence reports on the brittle nature of the situation on the ground.
What’s happening now?
An initial round of protests against Taliban rule were quickly quashed by a hail of bullets.
Now, with the Taliban firmly in control of Kabul and other major population centers (and enjoying access to an American-made arsenal), and American forces tied down to securing the airport, reprisals have now begun as the UN reports door-to-door raids, and Christianity Today reports on the targeting of Afghanistan Christians.
That the Taliban would waste no time in visiting violence upon their enemies (real and perceived) should not surprise anyone given the Taliban’s track record. Hell, it’s not even surprising Joe Biden who seems to have been caught by surprise by almost everything else related to this event.
American personnel and Afghan supporters still in the country are being left to fend for themselves (we don’t even seem to know how many need to get out) while America and NATO scramble resources to secure the Kabul airport and get more people out.
America has moved to free Afghan government assets to prevent them from falling into Taliban hands, while the Taliban has moved to put up a welcome sign for China, and allay American concerns of future terror attacks. Yeah, I don’t believe them either.
Diplomacy, we hardly knew ye
For being the President who was going to bring diplomacy and alliance back to American foreign policy and advance democracy at home and abroad, Joe Biden really dropped the ball on Afghanistan.
Even as the situation spun out of control, the President took some time off and did not hold any consultations with world leaders prior to the fall of Kabul or his midweek speech to the nation. Only when criticism at home began to ramp up did Biden place calls to London and Berlin.
Meanwhile, China jumped at the chance to hold up America’s failure in Afghanistan as proof positive that it would abandon Taiwan in the lurch, which the US quickly responded to, but talks cheap, it seems, in the Biden administration.
The blame game
As the scale of this catastrophe became apparent, the Biden administration has attempted to do two things: 1) defend the decision to withdraw, and 2) direct blame in every direction.
After getting called back to DC from a brief vacation, President Biden delivered remarks to the nation on the situation that did little to assuage a voting populace angry with the slapdash nature of American withdrawal and generally disapproving of the President’s handling of the situation.
Biden’s remarks did little to allay concerns on either side of the aisle as Congressional leaders both Republicans and Democrats, demanded answers from Biden and his foreign policy team and hinted at future investigations.
For their part, the Biden administration has laid blame for the fiasco at the feet of the Afghan government and military, and Donald Trump.
You might remember, the Trump administration had negotiated a deal with the Taliban last year that essentially put America on the path of a phased withdrawal, but as former VP Mike Pence articulated in an op-ed this week, the Trump plan looked nothing like the Biden plan.
Most Americans seem to agree with Pence: blame for this crisis lies squarely on President Biden. But will that matter at the ballot box?
My two cents? Americans are right to blame President Biden and his foreign policy team for this failure. After all, as I’ve noted before, much of this team was drawn from the Obama foreign policy team that also contributed to several crises and failures in that administration. They clearly have not developed much self-awareness. However, blame should not just be laid on American leaders. The collusion of Pakistan with the Taliban ensured the group’s survival over the last two decades, which directly made this comeback possible. America needs to seriously reevaluate its relationship with Pakistan.
Kabul and consequences
Election outcomes are just one possible consequence to be mindful of going forward. Historically, foreign policy troubles don’t usually impact a President or his party too much (and Biden is praying that trend holds). But then, we haven’t had a foreign policy meltdown like this in a generation, and the Democrats have already been struggling on other domestic fronts.
Beyond American elections, though, the fall of Afghanistan once again opens up the possibility of a nation-sized terrorist haven that can pose a direct threat to the US, another wave of refugees headed to Europe, and massive human suffering with Afghanistan. Indeed, armed opposition to the Taliban is already emerging, and ongoing civil conflict is likely.
This is going to be an ongoing crisis for American to manage, and a waking catastrophe for the Afghani people.
Did it have to end this way?
Critics of the withdrawal have argued forcefully, though not without error, that America’s support for the Afghanistan government was sustainable and keeping the Taliban at bay. We didn’t have to withdraw now, or certainly not as fast as we did, they argue.
President Biden, for his part, argues that withdrawal was going to be messy regardless of circumstances, and seems content to have ripped the band-aid off even as he apparently bemoans the consequences of that decision.
What does seem clear, though, is that America was not without warnings or options in terms of managing this situation as it developed, but key leaders like President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan chose to either downplay or ignore those warnings. And many are suffering the consequences of that foolishness.
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