August 2: Israel vs. Iran… and Turkey?

In which, the dogs of war are straining at their leashes, the Paris Olympics kick off, and Venezuela returns to the front page.

Israel vs. Iran… and Turkey?

It’s been a wild, wild week in the Middle East. The last couple of weeks have been the regular cycle of possible ceasefire, IDF Gaza operations, trading volleys with Hezbollah, and fears of an imminent broadening of the war to Lebanon. When the week started, that Lebanon front was the point of main concern as President Biden expressed optimism (again) that the war would not escalate there only to have events prove him wrong.

In quick succession, a Hezbollah missile struck a school in the Golan Heights killing 12 children, Israel struck back killing a senior Hezbollah commander, then announcing the death of Hamas’ senior military leader and reaching into the very center of the Islamic Republic of Iran to kill Hamas’ senior political leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran has vowed a response after Haniyeh’s funeral today (so this may already be dated info by the time you’re reading it). The 1-2-3 punch combo of Israel knocking off senior leaders in both Hamas and Hezbollah is a striking tactical achievement, but we’ll have to wait and see if it leads to any strategic gains.

Iran’s response will be very interesting since their last missile attack didn’t end particularly well beyond signaling capability. 

The real wildcard this week, however, was Turkey as seemingly out of nowhere President Recep Erdogan announced that Turkey could enter the fray in support of the Palestinians. It’s unclear what Erdogan meant, but he and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas both voiced anger at the killing of Haniyeh, so it’s hard to argue that Erdogan is not going to support Hamas in some way if Turkey gets more directly involved. If it were to take such action, though, it would clearly invest the question of Turkey’s NATO future with some urgency.