August 19: One year under the Taliban

In which, Afghanistan’s suffering continues one year after the American withdrawal, China seeks to redraw the game board around Taiwan, and the Democrats enter a precarious pre-election phase.

One year under the Taliban

As of this week, it’s been one year since America’s calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan. At the time, the general consensus from those of us critical of the withdrawal and the manner in which it was done was that the Taliban would most definitely not make good on its pledges to be inclusive in governance and a respecter of women’s rights. 

True to form, the Taliban rolled back access to education for women and girls, went on the hunt for political opponents, cozied up to China, and gave safe conduct and housing to the leader of Al Qaeda (before the US - possibly illegally - dispatched him a couple weeks ago). 

In the midst of the entirely predictable trajectory of Taliban rule, life under that rule for the average Afghani appears to have gotten worse as the economy crumbled and life necessities became scarce. Fragile gains against malnutrition and disease have largely been erased. 

Was it America’s responsibility to fix all these problems? Could America even do it? Probably not, but it was at least our responsibility to at least ensure sustainability of those gains in the medium term to give them the best chance of taking root. That we failed to do, and there’s been little accountability over that. 

It appears that the failure of the Biden administration to prevent such a catastrophe has not only dogged the administration in the last year, but almost permanently colored how American voters perceive the Biden presidency.

Rebalancing in the Taiwan Strait

After a week of live fire drills and saber rattling, things seem to have calmed down in the Taiwan Strait over Speaker Pelosi’s controversial trip to Taiwan. However, under the surface, China watchers have noticed that there have been some noticeable shifts in China’s approach to Taiwan, and it appears angled at making support of Taiwan a costlier proposition for potential allies, and a point of near-permanent crisis for US-China relations in an effort to not necessarily hurry Taiwan’s reassimilation with mainland China, but to at least keep the US and its allies at a safe distance. As one China expert put it, for Chairman Xi approaching the 20th Party Congress, “Taiwan is a crisis to be avoided, not an opportunity to be seized.”

That being said, China’s aggression in the air around Taiwan appears set to be the “new normal” while Beijing’s diplomatic corps is seeking to control messaging in critical regions like Europe.

China appears to be redoubling its efforts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan, only now they’re getting more aggressive about it with stronger countries more likely to support Taiwan in the event of a conflict.

I just recently listened to two fantastic podcasts on the subject of Taiwan from War on the Rocks, Net Assessment and Intelligence Matters. Highly recommend them to you as a crash course in this complex corner of the world.

Russia looks abroad for reinforcements for Ukraine

With fighting in Ukraine apparently stalemated and an apparent insurgency taking shape in Crimea, Russia may be getting a little desperate in forcing a decisive moment in the conflict and solving its developing manpower shortage on the frontlines: North Korean mercenaries.

Rumor has it that North Korea has offered the services of up to 100,000 troops in exchange for badly needed food and fuel in the impoverished country.