August 18: Is great-power competition over before it started?

In which, the Chinese economy takes it on the nose along with multiple other countries, Niger continues to destabilize, and Trump’s fourth indictment indicates the political nature of the prosecution.

Is great-power competition over before it started?

The (bad) hits just keep on coming for the Chinese economy. After last week’s news of declining exports and youth employment, signs of slumpage just kept piling up. The theme this week was the spiraling debt problem that is getting beyond the CCP’s control.

Debt has been a problem for the Chinese government and economy for at least the last decade, but the CCP has largely been able to kick the can down the road by throwing reams of new cash into domestic building projects (ghost cities, anyone?) and maintaining high exports. With real estate values now crashing, exports down, and your currency unstable, hope of a more global economic reach are fading, and even American officials who have long been sounding the “rising China” alarm have, almost overnight, changed their tune. 

However, I’m always one to distrust sudden reversals in Beltway opinion, and I’m not so bully on China’s economic (lack of) prospects as to be ready to claim victory in this cold war that is not a Cold War. Plenty of international relations research has been done that demonstrates that rising powers who experience sudden reversals in their trajectories actually become more dangerous and aggressive. So, look out, Asia. China as the “sick man” of Asia may be a bigger handful than China, the rising power. Just ask Ukraine now, or maybe even Russia in the near future. Also, a declining China doesn’t mean a resurgent America. In fact…

What happens when multiple powers weaken?