August 16: Ukraine puts Russia on its back foot

In which, Ukraine livens up the dog days of summer, American optimism over a Gaza ceasefire is again disappointed, and Kamala Harris rolls out her retread… I mean… winning strategy.

Looking at my newsfeed this week, it seemed like everyone was on vacation or in some kind of post-Olympics withdrawal as American news media continued to produce wall-to-wall Harris-Walz hagiography… I mean, coverage (more on that later) ahead of the Democratic National Convention. Until…

Ukraine puts Russia on its back foot

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is over a week old and the Ukrainian military continues to make gains and embarrass Russia’s meager defenses. The Kremlin has been very, very silent about this, and there seems to be little to know about a meaningful Russian counterattack at this moment.

Typically, this is where I would roll out my cursory knowledge of Russian military history to note that Russia’s vast size is its biggest defense asset. With the Ukrainian military attacking in force, but not at such a scale as to actually take and hold territory, Russia’s depth will ultimately be what stymies Ukraine’s efforts to tip the scales. Historically, when invaded, Russian forces pull back, let the invaded rack up gains until their supply lines are overextended and then it’s “Cry Havoc! And let slip the Cossacks!” 

I fully anticipate this to be the basic Russian response. That being said, Ukrainian gains beyond a certain point will hold Russian supply lines and logistics at risk, and it already appears to have alarmed otherwise staunch Russian ally Belarus. 

For Ukraine, the game is putting Russian operations at risk to get Moscow to the negotiating table. For Russia, the game is to use strategic depth to advantage and hopefully crush this incursion in dramatic fashion before aforesaid rear echelons are in fact put at risk so you can get back to grinding down Ukraine on its own turf. It’s a massive game of geopolitical chicken.