April 8: Elon Musk electrifies the Twitterverse

In which, Musk moves into the Twitter boardroom, Washington DC becomes Covid central, global alienation of Russia continues with revelation of mass graves, and its elections everywhere.

Elon Musk electrifies the Twitterverse

In a surprise move (at least to this non-Twitter user), Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped $3 billion on a 9.2% stake in Twitter stock this week. What’s so big about this?

Musk is a highly visible and verbal opponent of Twitter’s less than consistent stance on free speech, and has frequently mocked and criticized Twitter’s leadership for its alleged thought policing. 

The stock purchase not only makes Musk one of the largest stockholders in the company, but also gives him a seat on the Twitter board of directors, and he has made no secret about his intention to change the company. He seems to be on to something, because the announcement of Musk’s stock purchase gave Twitter’s stock price a solid boost.

Washington, District of Covid?

It’s baaaaack. The now predictable “Spring Break” surge of Covid kicked off this week in multiple states across the country in addition to one rather surprising outlier: Multi-vaccinated, strictly managed, many times locked down Washington D.C. has experienced what some have called a “mini-Covid wave” among the D.C. elite with many lawmakers testing positive. 

In response, the relaxed mandate that federal employees be fully vaccinated has snapped back into place, but there seems to be little discussion (for now) on what else the federal government will do, and for good reason. 

First, it's unclear just how severe this wave will be. Second, no governing party already struggling with inflation and a struggling economy is going to want to shut the latter down while feeding the former. Third, most Americans have moved beyond Covid, and are more likely to respond negatively to a new set of broad restrictions. And, fourth, if D.C. is a test case of doing everything right, it appears to have only put off the inevitable. In a cost benefit analysis, that’s hardly an argument for a return to sweeping Covid-restrictions. My guess is that the policy response to Coivd is going to become increasingly localized in the near term.

Bucha and Russia’s global reckoning

The war in Ukraine revealed new terrors this week as retreating Russian forces from around Kyiv left behind mass graves and stories of terror in their wake. And, while the world was focused on the killings in Bucha this week, headlines today revealed a similar story in Borodyanka, while a Russian rocket attack killed dozens of civilians in the eastern city of Kramatorsk.

The global reaction to fresh evidence of Russian war crimes was swift and visceral. American lawmakers began speaking of genocide and war crimes trials, Russia was voted out of the UN Human Rights Council, Russian diplomats were expelled from European capitals, and a fresh round of sanctions started targeting Putin’s family. 

One really wonders how much more isolated Russia can become, but if you look at a map of who voted in against removing Russia from the UNHRC you’ll see that Russia does have a bloc of support. Those countries, mostly grouped in Central Asia, seem to be more influenced by Russian information sources and diplomacy.  

There’s also a good argument to be made that sanctions in particular may not go far enough in truly punishing Russia until they directly impact oil and gas exports. 

Mass killings of civilians, an apparent imperviousness to sanctions, and a forming bloc of Eurasian support poses a difficult question to Western policymakers: Where do we go from here?

I would guess that few policymakers are shocked by the evidence of Russian atrocities. Experts on the region have been predicting a bloody, ruthless fight ever since the Russian offensive stalled. However, those policymakers are beholden to publics that are increasingly shocked by what they’re seeing and hearing coming out of Ukraine. One wonders if those publics will eventually push policymakers into a humanitarian intervention?